Well, after blogging about every single pick in Round 1 I took a 30 minute break and now it’s time to look at each offensive skill player that was selected. There were a lot of picks I liked in the first round for fantasy purposes. Here is an early reaction to the first round and thoughts on where the players should be ranked by fantasy owners.
Andrew Luck, QB Colts
Luck is a great prospect but the Colts are far from a good team right now. I think Luck has some fantasy value as a backup but my guess is he’ll be more help to owners down the line. The Colts have a couple of good receivers in Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie and they’ll likely be playing from behind a lot. On the flip side, the Colts offensive line could get Luck killed by Halloween.
Early Position Rank: I put Luck at No. 23 in my most recent quarterback rankings.
Robert Griffin, QB Redskins
Griffin is in a better spot to succeed early on in his career because the Redskins have a team that should challenge for a playoff spot. I like the look of this Redskins squad. Their speed on offense with Griffin, Roy Helu, Pierre Garcon, Leonard Hankerson and Fred Davis is scary. I think RG3 will make an immediate fantasy impact. He won’t put up Cam Newton-type numbers as a rookie but at worst Griffin will be a solid spot starter for fantasy owners like Andy Dalton was last year.
Early Position Rank: I have Griffin at No. 18 in my most recent quarterback rankings but he could move up a couple of spots next week.
Trent Richardson, RB Browns
This was a home run for both the Browns and fantasy owners. Cleveland was the best possible landing spot for Richardson in terms of fantasy value. He’s going to come in right away and be the primary ball carrier for the Browns. I think we all agree Cleveland didn’t move up one spot to secure Richardson so he could sit on the bench. This kid has it all and he should be a fantasy monster right away.
Early Position Rank: Richardson will be in my top 15 when I release my updated running back rankings next week. He won’t get out of the second round in a majority of fantasy drafts. There aren’t many backs in the NFL that are going to get the number of touches Richardson will in 2012.
Justin Blackmon, WR Jaguars
I love Blackmon and I think this was a great pick for Jacksonville. However, for fantasy owners hoping Blackmon would get paired up with a quarterback like Sam Bradford or Ryan Fitzpatrick, it’s a big disappointment. Even if Blaine Gabbert improves in 2012 the Jaguars offense will need to get better by leaps and bounds for Blackmon to have a lot of fantasy value. Blackmon will be a fantasy star someday, I just don’t think that day will come in 2012.
Early Position Rank: I suspect others are going to have Blackmon rated higher than I will. There is a big difference between NFL football and fantasy football. I think Blackmon will help Jacksonville’s passing game improve but I don’t see enough production from him to be a fantasy starter at receiver. I love the kid but he’ll probably just make my Top 50 next week.
Ryan Tannehill, QB Dolphins
I think Miami had to take a shot on Tannehill if they thought he was a highly rated quarterback prospect. Matt Moore is a decent stop-gap but now the Dolphins have a legitimate option for the future. I don’t see Tannehill playing much this year unless the Dolphins have an awful season and he gets the call in the final month. He just isn’t polished enough to come right in and be a starting NFL quarterback.
Early Position Rank: Tannehill won’t be ranked in my Top 35 quarterbacks. For fantasy purposes I think he’s purely keeper league material.
Michael Floyd, WR Cardinals
This was one of my favorite picks in the first round. I had Floyd going to Arizona in my mock draft because I think he’ll team with Larry Fitzgerald to give the Cardinals one of the most feared receiver tandems in the NFL. I have Floyd rated as one of the 10 best prospects in this draft, so I obviously expect him to come in right away and contribute. I’m not ready to close the book on Kevin Kolb quite yet but I will be if Arizona’s offensive line can’t keep him upright.
Early Position Rank: Floyd will make his debut in my Top 50 receivers next week. He would also be one of my top targets in keeper leagues. I think this was a perfect landing spot for him.
Kendall Wright, WR Titans
I like Wright as a player and I think he’s going to help fantasy owners down the road but considering we’re he’ll be on the pecking order at receiver in Tennessee, I’m not high on him for this season. As I’ve stated many times I think Wright is the fastest player in this draft at any position. He’ll come in and provide some big plays for the Titans offense but with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Damian Williams in the mix, Wright will have to fight for targets as a rookie.
Early Position Rank: I won’t have Wright in my Top 50 receivers at this point. I think he’s probably between 60-70 for me. I like him a lot more in keeper leagues than I do re-draft leagues right now.
Brandon Weeden, QB Browns
I had Weeden going to the Browns at 22 in every one of my mock drafts until the final one because I’m a gutless turd. The reason I liked Weeden to the Browns is because everything he does well fits what Cleveland likes to do on offense. Weeden is a quick decision maker and he’s deadly accurate on short-to-intermediate throws. I believe Weeden is ready to step in right away and lead an NFL offense, so Colt McCoy better get a lot better soon or he’ll be holding a clipboard.
Early Position Rank: Weeden will come in between 35-40 in my quarterback rankings. I think he could have fantasy value in 2012 but McCoy will likely begin the season as Cleveland’s starting quarterback unless he bombs in training camp.
Update: Reports say the Brows are shopping McCoy and Weeden will start for Cleveland from day 1. I think this makes Weeden an intriguing fantasy QB, especially if the Browns add more weapons at receiver. I like what Cleveland is doing. In that division you have to make bold moves. Weeden will now move into the Top 30 of my QB rankings next week.
A.J. Jenkins, WR 49ers
I know I’m going to be in the minority here but I love this pick for the 49ers. I wrote a post earlier in the week where I named Jenkins as one of my five players fantasy owners should know. I had him rated as the No. 5 receiver in the draft, so I wasn’t surprised to see him go late in Round 1. I’m telling you right now that this kid can play. Just because these draft idiots didn’t have Jenkins in their mocks doesn’t mean it’s a bad pick or a “reach.” Jenkins caught 90 balls last year at Illinois with average quarterback play. People are going to criticize this pick but that’s just because they don’t know how good Jenkins is and will be in the NFL.
Early Position Rank: Jenkins will come in somewhere between 50-60 at receiver for me and he’s one of my top rookie sleepers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jenkins ends up being one of the most productive fantasy rookies in 2012.If you are in a keeper league, I would strongly suggest targeting Jenkins after the top guys go off the board.
Doug Martin, RB Bucs
I don’t love Martin as much as some people but this pick makes sense for Tampa Bay. Martin is a good pass protector and receiver, something LeGarrette Blount isn’t. Martin is an intriguing fantasy running back for me because I get the feeling Greg Schiano doesn’t love Blount. Tampa Bay would have drafted Richardson and then they traded back into the first round for Martin. The former Boise State star will see a lot of playing time as a rookie and his fantasy value goes up in PPR leagues because of his ability as a receiver. Don’t be surprised if Martin catches 50 balls this season.
Early Position Rank: Martin will most likely crack my Top 50 running backs when I release them next week. If he doesn’t, he’ll be just outside my rankings. I have a feeling that the closer we get to fantasy drafts, the more I’m going to like Martin.
David Wilson, RB Giants
Now you talk about a pick I absolutely love, this is it. First of all, the Giants needed a running back. The only guy they really have is Ahmad Bradshaw and while he’s a very good player, the Giants coaching staff doesn’t want like to overuse him. That’s smart because while Bradshaw is as tough as they come he has had problems with foot injuries in the past. Wilson is coming into a perfect situation. He was my second ranked running back in this draft. Wilson is known for his speed but his power is underrated. Wilson led all backs in this class in yards after contact. Plus, he’s a home run hitter. Bradshaw is good but he’s not going to break off 80-yard runs. Wilson gives the Giants a big-play guy in the backfield. Wilson’s only drawback is he put the ball on the ground too much in college. If he does that early on in his NFL career, he could see his playing time decrease.
Early Position Rank: Wilson is one of my top rated fantasy rookies. I think he’ll have a big role in the Giants offense from day 1. I’ll have Wilson ranked in my Top 50 running backs next week and he should go really early in keeper league drafts.
Nice job with the draft day 1 live blog and quick fantasy breakdown of the picks. Was surprised too about the solid Dallas trade-up to get Claiborne at #6. Maybe Jones and his goons have turned a corner and things have changed for the good there.
Some quick thoughts regarding some of the key players and their impact on some of the established players on their teams.
At QB, the Floyd pick turns Kolb into an intriguing late rd pick in my opinion. He’ll have a full offseason (unlike last year) to work with the team and obviously has some great weapons to work with at WR. No one’s going to want him this year and he’s in an offensive system that produced some fantasy stud QB years for Warner. You have Kolb ranked at #28, which means you can get him for nothing. Not saying he’s going to succeed but he’s surrounded by talent and is in a position to produce some great #’s. It’s a no risk for high reward proposition.
The Wright pick does nothing but boost my confidence in Jake Locker having the out-of-nowhere surprise season at QB. The team’s loaded with weapons at WR and Cook at TE and obviously CJ at RB to take pressure off the passing game. Big time sleeper at QB.
I saw some IL games this year and agree that Jenkins is very talented but don’t think he landed in a good spot in SF. First off, he’s got Smith at QB but then also has to compete for targets with Crabtree, Manningham, Moss, and Vernon. I’m actually not liking any of the players on that team for fantasy purposes.
I didn’t really watch any Boise St games, so I don’t know too much about Martin, but I think he landed in a great spot to produce for fantasy. I’d be shocked if they plan to make Blount the main ball-carrier and Schiano obviously wants to run the ball a lot. The addition of Nicks will really solidify a good OL, which should mean good things for the running game. It’s early but I think Martin could surprise and end up being a fantasy starter at RB for most teams.
Not so sure about this Richardson guy in CLE. They have this stud Montario Hardesty there and I’m not sure how many carries he’s going to get behind that horse….I think Trent’s an immediate top 10 back and would put him at #9 for now behind Matthews.
Again, great job with the site and am really liking all this early fantasy football discussion.
Thanks JT and I appreciate the feedback. I’ll say this I’m on board with Locker too and if he becomes a stud I’ll give you the credit. Your comments really made me look into the situation a bit deeper and the more I think about it the more I love Locker this year.
Martin is in the perfect situation for his skills. He’s going to end up being that “sexy” rookie pick as we get closer to drafts.
Richardson will probably debut between 10-12 for me next week. Like I said, how many backs have a clearer path to all the touches for their team? Five? Six?
I hear your concerns about Jenkins but this is one of those situations where I loved the guy before the draft and most people hate the pick, so I have to back him. I think he’s a star. Maybe not this year but like Kendall Wright I believe he’ll show flashes and set up for a big 2013 season.
Again, thanks for following and taking the time to give me your opinions on everything.
Yeah, you made a nice very early call on Jenkins and I agree that his ability and skill set is legit. I just think he landed in a really bad spot fantasy-wise. It’s a conservative offense, that’s crowded at WR/TE, while also having a questionable QB. If he would have landed with the Texans, Bengals, Vikings, or even Giants, I’d be much higher on his potential for this season and next.
I really liked the Kalil pick for MIN, which will help give Christian Ponder more time to throw. Maybe it’s reaching a bit but I think this ultimately will help a guy like Harvin as it gives him a little more time to get open and potentially make more big plays.
I also liked the PIT pick of DeCastro, which should upgrade their running game. He and Pouncy are a great young tandem to build around. If PIT doesn’t spend a high pick at RB or make another signing, then I’ll be all over Redman in drafts this summer.
I love DeCastro. I was surprised he fell that far. He can even move over and play tackle in a pinch. That was a very good pick for the Steelers and you know they must love DeCastro if they passed on Hightower to get him.
Sometimes we don’t give enough credit when a team does the simple thing but I thought the Vikings made the right decision. Defensive ends were getting in on Ponder right after the snap towards the end of the year. If he wasn’t mobile he may have gotten killed back there. I thought that was the right pick for Minnesota. You don’t get a chance to grab guys like Kalil very often.
I’m seriously considering going all for Richardson in the first round whenever FF is here. He’s got a lot of talent and the Browns sure know and love to use a bruising and pounding RB; I had Peyton Hillis in his breakout season and he paid dividends, even if my Ravens, Steelers and Bengals all have imposing defenses against the run I think Richardson is going to get them at least in 3 of the 6 games.
I liked the Floyd pick by Arizona, if he’s anything like Fitzgerald (no matter if the pass is good or not, he’ll most likely grab it) then Kolb is definitely entering my radar now as a sleeper 4th round pick.
The lack of TEs taken this year reverses the trend of dual threat TEs for all teams or you think the TE will still gain more and more importance?
I agree on Richardson and one of the reasons I had him so highly rated was the way he ran against teams like LSU. He gets tough yards against good defenses. It’s not just 200-yard games against North Texas. So even if you have a good defense, Richardson is still going to get his yards. That’s the most impressive thing about him in my opinion.
Kolb has a chance as long as the line holds up. People are down on him but that line was awful last year. That will be the key to Arizona’s offense this year.
This is a very weak TE class. I’m talking one of the weakest I’ve ever seen. That’s why you didn’t see any go in Round 1. If there was an elite player, he would have went in the Top 10 with the shift to using them more. One guy I do like though is Dwayne Allen. I would love to see him land with a team like the Raiders that could use a tight end.