2012 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings
(Last updated on June 13)
After a couple of weeks off I’m updating my rankings starting with quarterback. I feel it was good to give a little time in between updates. This way I was able to step back and just think about certain situations and not worry about ranking players. I know everyone is dying to see which Jaguars quarterback I have ranked higher between Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, so let’s get to it. Here’s my updated Top 40 fantasy quarterbacks for 2012.
Just a quick note: I couldn’t access My Fantasy League for some reason on Tuesday night to do my ADP breakdown on receivers, so I’ll finish that series up on Thursday and then get back to my updated rankings on Friday.
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Matthew Stafford, Lions ↑
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Cam Newton, Panthers
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers
7. Mike Vick, Eagles
8. Eli Manning, Giants
9. Peyton Manning, Broncos
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons ↑
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
13. Jay Cutler, Bears ↓
14. Robert Griffin, Redskins
15. Carson Palmer, Raiders
16. Andy Dalton, Bengals
17. Matt Schaub, Texans
18. Andrew Luck, Colts
19. Joe Flacco, Ravens
20. Alex Smith, 49ers
21. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
22. Josh Freeman, Bucs ↓
23. Sam Bradford, Rams
24. Matt Cassel, Chiefs ↑
25. Matt Flynn, Seahawks
26. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals ↓
27. Jake Locker, Titans
28. Christian Ponder, Vikings
29. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans
30. Mark Sanchez, Jets
31. Brandon Weeden, Browns ↑
32. John Skelton, Cardinals ↑
33. Tim Tebow, Jets ↑
34. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins ↑
35. Chad Henne, Jaguars
36. Joe Webb, Vikings ↓
37. Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks ↑
38. Matt Moore, Dolphins ↓
39. Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars ↓
40. Colt McCoy, Browns
Going Up
Stafford - I did my statistical projections for quarterbacks and Stafford came in almost even with Aaron Rodgers. I have Stafford leading the NFL in passing yards this season and tossing 40+ touchdowns. Stafford is the only quarterback I have coming in right at 5,000 yards this year. I put a lot of time into player evaluations and that includes going back over my notes from last season. I take notes every week and leave them for the following year to make sure I’m not overlooking anything.
For all my Cam Newton love, it was actually Stafford I was most impressed with by the end of last season. Stafford had a great year overall but it was the final five games of 2011 where he really took that next step in my opinion. Now you look at the weapons Stafford has with Megatron, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Brandon Pettigrew and Ryan Broyles. I’ll put that group of targets up against virtually any team in the NFL.
Last year Stafford passed for over 5,000 yards and was fantasy football’s fourth leading scorer in most formats behind only the Big 3 quarterbacks. This season I believe Stafford will challenge Rodgers to be the top overall scorer. I’ve correctly predicted the passing yardage leader three seasons in a row now. I think when you look at all the variables involved, Stafford will make it four straight.
I certainly can’t complain if you draft Rodgers, Cam, Tom Brady or Drew Brees but for my money Stafford going roughly 20 picks after Rodgers makes him an attractive option. When you factor in his potential production with where he’s being drafted, Stafford offers the most value out of the Top 5 projected fantasy quarterbacks.
Ryan - I guess I’ll start buying into the Ryan hype a little with all the talk of Atlanta running a no-huddle offense. The again with Mike Smith calling the shots they’ll probably ditch that after Week 1. Smith is a good overall coach but let’s be honest his strength isn’t playcalling on gameday. I actually think Ryan is better when he’s running a quick, no-huddle attack. In my opinion that’s when he thrives. Ryan actually reminds me a little bit of Eli Manning a couple of years ago. If Ryan can progress like Eli did both fantasy owners and Falcons fans will be ecstatic.
I had Ryan as my starter three years ago and the guy sunk me. I lost a bunch of close games and his 11 points a week were one of the main reasons why. I’ve always said Ryan gets better the more he throws the ball but Smith likes to be balanced just so he can say he’s being balanced. I’ve seen that in a lot of games where Ryan is clicking but then Smith has to get the running game going for some reason. The next thing you know Ryan is out of rhythm. That’s the difference with teams like the Packers, Saints and Patriots. When their quarterbacks are on fire those coaches let them go.
So basically I’m saying I can see Ryan becoming a really good fantasy starter if Smith let’s the offense become a little more pass heavy. That’s why I moved him up a couple of spots in my rankings. If the Falcons are ever going to take the next step as a team they’re going to do so because of Ryan and his receivers, not the defense and running game. At least that’s how I see it. So for now I’m on board with Ryan but that will probably change by the time you read this sentence.
Weeden - I was high on Weeden coming into the draft and while I don’t think he has a ton of fantasy value in re-draft leagues, I’m really starting to like him in dynasty league formats. The more I go back and watch Weeden’s college games the more I think he has all the tools to be a successful NFL quarterback. Again, as I wrote last month, the only real negative I see with Weeden is at times he tends to struggle with accuracy early in games. I don’t know if he’s too pumped up (a problem Brett Favre had early in his career) or what but if the Browns coaching staff can fix that problem, Weeden doesn’t have many holes in his game. Cleveland still needs to surround Weeden with a few more weapons but he’s a guy that could be high on the fantasy radar in 2013.
Coming Down
Cutler - I’m still really high on Cutler but he’s currently the 15th quarterback being taken on average in fantasy drafts. That means you can wait until roughly Round 10 to snag him as either a starter or a valuable backup. I feel Cutler is best suited as a QB2 with the upside to possibly become your starter or valuable trade bait down the line.
Freeman - Since the day Greg Schiano was hired I told people to get ready to see a lot of running in Tampa Bay. The fact that the Bucs drafted Doug Martin in Round 1 obviously didn’t do much to change my thinking. I believe Schiano is going to turn Freeman into more of a game manager. I see Freeman using a lot of play-action to take shots down the field but the days of him throwing the ball 40 times a game are over for the most part. This is an important year for Freeman. I tabbed him as one of the most overrated players to ever get drafted in Round 1. He proved me wrong at first but then regressed in 2011. My guess is the real Freeman is somewhere in between.
Gabbert - Right now I’m predicting Chad Henne to win the starting quarterback job in Jacksonville. Is that enough? I mean do I really need another reason besides that to have a quarterback coming down?
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Cammy Cam is overrated. Newton was amazing last year, but I would bet he has a little sophomore slump this season. Maybe nothing major, maybe he just has a slight drop off, but I am willing to bet that, just as with Michael Vick, NFC defensive coordinators are cooking up a set of “Newton Rules” to minimize his effectiveness. Don’t get me wrong, I think the kid is insanely talented/gifted, but he is also young and inexperienced and every player has flaws that can be exploited and Cam is no different. Cam thrived off of the big plays last year. I would bet that part of the strategy that will be used against him will be to make him play small ball and give him all the underneath passes….maybe put some ambien in his gatorade before the games….tie his shoe laces together….
His numbers could certainly go down. The second year is when it usually happens for the reasons you stated. Just based on pure ability though I think Newton deserves to be ranked high. Even on his bad days his rushing numbers will help fantasy owners to some extent.
I told myself I wouldn’t get sucked into fantasy football until July but damnit I failed. Great content Tom. I feel bad because I’d love to tell my friends so that your blog could get more hits, but I don’t want those idiots seeing this.
No problem Kyle. I’m doing just fine with you and the 20 other people that follow the blog. I don’t want to get too big anyway. I’m not good under pressure. No one in my family is. We’re a bunch of chokers. I’m only good when I think my opinion doesn’t matter. Let’s keep it that way. Thanks for checking out the blog.
Even Mark Sanchez is better in a no huddle offence, NFL play calling leaves a lot to be desired just look at the Ravens last year how they lost to the Pats with a WR playing CB still stuns me even now! I know you don’t like Mike Vick much but he is falling to the 6-7th rounds in recent mock drafts i have done,i think he has value there, the Eagles could go all the way this year IF he stays healthy.Keep up the good work would like to see what you make of a sneaky D this year i am thinking Seattle
Mike, if I was picking in the sixth or seventh round and Vick was on the board, I would seriously think about drafting him. Say he plays 12 games. I think he’s worth the pick. Now go back to last year. My argument against him being a first round pick is he may only play 12 games. So the situation has changed. It’s not that I’m anti-Vick. I’m just against overvaluing him but that’s not the case this year. I think you’re right, he has some value right now. Thanks for the feedback.
Love your stuff as always TC!
so here’s a question: in a PPR league, would you stock up on WR / RB and get Matt Ryan later as a QB1, hoping that Mike Smith doesn’t screw up or would you go ahead with Stafford in rd 2 since there seems to be a ton of depth at WR right now? After reading this article, I’m leaning towards going with Stafford.
It’s always tough for me to answer these questions Chris because I think you can go either route and build a strong team. It really depends on how the draft goes. We have been discussing the pros and cons of taking a QB early since I started this blog and people have brought up strong arguments for both methods. Here is my advice: If you are sitting there in Round 2 and you think Stafford is the best option on the board, I say take him. If there is a WR or RB that you are really high on, go with that guy and grab a quarterback later on. That’s how I would play it. I hope this helps some.
Cam Newton’s avg passing yards per game last season:
1st 4 games - 346 ypg
Final 12 games - 222 ypg
Last 6 games - 194 ypg
Also, after his 3 rushing TD explosion in week 13 against a lifeless TB squad that had quit on the season, he only scored 1 rushing TD over his final 4 games.
I know all the arguments about Cam being a beast, freak, and possibly the most talented player in the league. I’m here to tell you that he is being ranked and drafted too high (ADP of 10). Every expert assumes and takes it as a given that Cam will improve in year 2. I know it doesn’t make sense but I expect to see a regression.
QB rushing TD’s are arguably the most random and varying stat from season to season. Go back and look over the career stats of Kordell Stewart, Vick, and Vince Young. Any person that drafted them the year after one of their big rushing TD seasons was seriously disappointed. Don’t be surprised when Cam’s rushing TD total drops in half.
I also don’t expect the passing #’s to get any better. The team did not add any help at WR or TE. LaFell couldn’t beat out Legadu Naanee last season and now he’s supposed to be the answer at WR 2? Steve Smith is great but he’s 33 and I don’t think we should expect him to surpass last year’s surprise 1,400 yd campaign. I actually do like Olsen to improve on his #’s but that’s mostly because Shockey is gone + the team’s weak crop of #2 WR.
I will be the first to admit if I’m wrong and will gladly do so on these boards if Cam holds steady or improves in year 2. I’m not saying he’s going to be a complete disaster but I do not expect him to live up to these high expectations. Currently, I would take the following QB’s over him - Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Vick, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Eli, & Peyton. Clearly he will not be on any of my squads this season.
Thanks for the info JT. I would disagree though that it actually DOES make sense Newton’s numbers might go down in his second year and you stated the examples of other quarterbacks as to why it could happen. I agree that 10 is too high but I also think Newton will still be a very productive fantasy QB even if his numbers go down some. I just think Carolina is still rebuilding on defense and even if he struggles early on in games he’ll have to throw and run for a lot of yards to keep the team competitive. I respect your opinion and to be honest I won’t be shocked at all if it happens. Like you said, if a good young QB is going to have a bit of a down year it will likely be in his second season before he makes adjustments to the adjustments defenses made to stop him if that makes any sense.
Makes total sense to me. By the stats you posted, it is obvious that Cam started to slow down. Teams started doing a better job scheming against him and he probably wore down a bit towards the end of the season. I will let someone else waste an early pick on him.
Hey Man,
Very good analysis. You do good work on this blog. I am actually co-founder of Rotomania.com and I wish I could get some talent like yours involved in our project.
I was thrown off a bit when I saw Stafford at #2, but I can\’t say I have a huge problem with your analysis. I traded Shonn Greene for Stafford before 1 of last season and he and McCoy got me to the final for the 3rd year in a row.
Anyway, best of luck and I\’ll be back on your site a lot this season.
Cheers!
Thanks for checking out the blog Jonathan, I appreciate it. I have one question: Is the guy you traded Greene to for Stafford still talking to you? I think it’s safe to say you made out on that deal. Thanks for the comment.
Weeden. I want to like this guy as a possible developmental QB and maybe a back up this year, but not sure about him now after watching tape of him last year, tell me if you see the same thing…..he almost always locks in on one-side of the field or one receiver. I did not see one throw where he would progress from one side of the field to another or look off a safety, not once. Now maybe he did not have to the way their offense was designed and someone may have been open, but he is going to have to use his eyes better in the pros to be successful. Just my observation.
The first guy was almost always open. The defense in the Big 12 is awful, that’s what makes those players so tough to breakdown. I will say he did find secondary receivers against Stanford in the bowl game. Blackmon and Josh Cooper were always open though. Same thing with the Baylor receivers. I like Weeden personally but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he was a total bust. Those Big 12 pass defenses make a lot of people look good. I just go with my gut in that conference and my gut tells me Weeden has what it takes to be at least a decent starter at the NFL level. You are right though, he still has a ways to go because things often came so easy for him in college. By the way, Tannehill played in the same conference, so that makes three of the Top 4 quarterbacks that came from the conference with the worst pass defenses in the country.
Payton over Cam? Vick over Cam??…. Hey now….
You make good points JT, but i think the actual answer is somewhere in the middle. Considering how he started, possibly how those last games went, and them having nothing to play for, i would expect D’s to recover a bit on Cam. But you’re too down on him. If you weigh Cams possible regression next to Manning’s possibly being a Javid Best like one hit away from never playing again, being on a totally new team, and so old he was showing signs of decline before last year, i don’t see how you think Payton is a smarter pick come draft day. Vick flat out said he’s looking to take less hits this year by changing his game and staying in the pocket more, because he’s gotta think about retirement in a few years. You want a guy thinking R word over Cam? I think he’s going a tick high too, i like him mid late 2nd, and wonder if ADP10 is in non PPR leagues, would make more sense, but don’t be a hater dude, Cam’s the man, ha
Good luck
It’s Peyton, Not Payton. Anyway I would feel comfortable taking him anytime after rd 5. Im gonna try and get Matt Ryan this year in all the legues I play. I feel like this is going to be the year. With the way some if these mocks are playing out I may end up with both Peyton & Ryan. I know your high on Julio and you know Roddy is gonna get his, well that could be 2500 yds and close 20 tds right there. Also loving the site, but fearful to share with buddies because of greed! Keep up the good work.
Nerd, it’s nothing against Cam. I’m just playing the odds, which favor Newton regressing somewhat substantially. Any QB that got most of their value from rushing stats, in particular rushing TD’s, almost always drops off the following year. I was that idiot in 1998 that blew my early 1st round pick on Kordell Stewart over Terrel Davis. I’m not comparing Cam to Kordell but the situations are similar. I just think owners will be chasing last years stats with Cam and will be disappointed.
“I just think owners will be chasing last years stats with Cam and will be disappointed.”….This. I think Cam is very good and will be a very good QB in the years to come, but the hype has reached hysteria and it was obvious that Cam started to fade down the stretch. The element of surprise was definitely in his favor last year.
Now Nerd, I have heard all journalists and media outlets (and blog experts like us
) proclaim that Manthing is “one hit away from the end of his career”. That is simply hyperbole and no more true than it is for other players. Peyton’s surgery actually made that problem area in his neck stronger and less likely to be injured. The doctors have already stated as much. The only real question is how much of his arm strength will return and will it be enough to be effective? Will he be able to eventually throw like the old Peyton? The real issue was nerve damage caused by the bulging discs, which caused (and is possibly still causing) numbness and weakness in his throwing arm. The doctors were/are concerned that it may have caused a permanent deficit in Peyton strength and ability to throw the football.
As far as being injury prone, specific to the area where Peyton had surgery, it si stronger than it ever was before and he is LESS likely to suffer an injury in that area of his neck.
Regarding your Stafford ranking…Did you consider the fact that Detroit was almost completely depleted in their RB depth last year which I feel had a lot to do with the inflated passing numbers?
I just don’t think Detroit is a running team. They are like the Packers and Patriots in my opinion. They have built their team to throw. I think if Best is healthy that only helps the passing game because he’s such a good receiver. In my opinion the Lions offensive line is one of the worst power blocking lines in the NFL. I can see their rushing numbers improving some but not to the point where the passing game suffers. At least that’s how I see it. Thanks for the comment.
Interesting factoid i read on Twitter a week ago. ‘Even if you remove all 14 of Cams rushing TDs, he still would’ve finished 6th in QB scoring.’ Probably depends on scoring system, but still, Cam wasn’t even mostly rushing TD’s, that’s just what you remember from sports center
Nerd, that statement is accurate. Per standard scoring, Newton would have ranked 7, just a few points behind Eli. He would have been right in the Eli, Romo, Ryan range (with Rivers not too far behind). Obviously he is going to have substantial rushing stats (including great rushing yardage, which is huge). I’m just of the opinion that overall both his passing and rushing stats will go down and we will see improvements from Ryan, Vick, Rivers, and Peyton will still be good for 4,000+ yd and 30 TD.
I certainly understand the arguments and thoughts for those that have high expectations for Cam, he could be phenomenal. I’ve just been there and seen it before and am going to stick with my experiences and gut.
As for Payton, like i said, he was showing signs of decline before not playing at all last year. No way he’s a better or safer pick than Cam.
BTW - what’s up with the “comments awaiting moderation” now on the boards? Have there been a lot of trolls posting stupid crap or spam coming thru? No big deal, I just remember posts going right up before.
There was spam getting through but I think it’s fixed now.
I remember seeing a lot of mine awaiting moderation,.. i drink so, probably a good thing, ha