Source: blogs.ajc.com
It pleases me to introduce a new series at my blog: Fantasy Faceoff. Throughout the month of July Fantasy FB Pundit and I will each take a player and argue our case for him. I think this will work out well because the two of us have very different styles. Pundit likes to look inside the numbers and that’s a direct contrast to my read and react kind of analysis. So regardless of who you agree with, I believe we’ll have a little something for everyone over the next month in these articles.
In a stunning upset, the first edition of Fantasy Faceoff has me defending a member of the Dallas Cowboys organization post-1995. I argue for owning Tony Romo this season, while Pundit puts his weight behind Matt Ryan.
The Case for Matt Ryan
We’ll get this out of the way from the start: I’m not advocating Ryan as some kind of elite fantasy QB that belongs in the Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Michael Vick tiers. He just doesn’t have that high of a ceiling. Personally, I will be targeting Vick in all my leagues at his current ADP (37.1, QB6), but failing that strategy, well, a back-up plan is in order. And his name is Matt Ryan.
Ryan (ADP 78.7) is the QB to own if you decide to wait on your signal-caller this season (I also like Philip Rivers in this spot). We know this for three reasons: 1) he finished 2011 much, much better than he started it; 2) Atlanta has a new offensive coordinator who has pledged to open up the passing game more, which dovetails nicely with the presumed breakout of Julio Jones; and 3) Michael Turner’s fantasy production is about to drive straight off a cliff. Let’s examine each of these reasons on their own.
Ryan was a completely different fantasy QB in the second half of last season than he was in the first. In Weeks 1-7, Ryan averaged 22/36 (61%) for 240 yards (6.7 YPA) with 9 TD and 8 INT. If we remove his two rushing scores (not something you can rely on from Ryan — these were his only two all year), Ryan averaged a mere 11.4 fantasy points per game during this stretch.
After the Falcons’ bye week, however, we saw a completely different QB. Not including Atlanta’s Week 17 blowout win vs. Tampa Bay, where he threw only nine passes, Ryan averaged 23/38 (61%) for 299 yards (7.9 YPA) with 18 TD and just 4 INT in Weeks 9-16. Those stats come out to a nifty 19.5 fantasy points per game, which would have been good enough to rank Ryan as the QB6 overall last season. If Ryan can continue in 2012 where he left off in 2011, he will present a fantastic draft bargain.
Atlanta did finish 4th in the league in total pass attempts last season, but they’ve brought in a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter who is expected to implement a more vertical passing scheme with increased emphasis on the no-huddle, a development that should only help Ryan’s fantasy production. And with the expected emergence of stud WR Jones, Ryan now has two legitimate WR1 targets (Roddy White, of course, being the other one) at his disposal, not to mention TE Tony Gonzalez, who despite his age, managed to finish 4th amongst TEs in fantasy scoring last season. With a new scheme and a bevy of receiving weapons, Ryan certainly has the offensive firepower that you like to see in your fantasy QB.
But perhaps no development in Atlanta will help spike Ryan’s fantasy potential more so than the predicted decline in Turner’s usage and production. Falcons coaches have already stated they plan on cutting back Turner’s workload, and for good reason — he completely broke down at the end of the season (go check out his game logs from Weeks 12-16).
Where this could prove useful for Ryan is in the red zone. Last season, Turner ranked 3rd amongst RBs with 60 carries in the red zone and 1st with 28 carries inside the 5-yard line. With a new coordinator calling plays and an offense not as reliant on Turner, Ryan could see a serious increase in red zone opportunities. And more opportunities, of course, means more passing scores.
Now, this is the part of my post where I’m supposed to say something bad about Tony Romo. But I’m not going to. I like Romo a lot from a fantasy perspective, but his ADP is 53.6 and I just think you can get close to equal production with Matt Ryan 25 picks later.
-Fantasy FB Pundit
Follow Pundit on Twitter @FantasyFbPundit
The Case for Tony Romo
I like to speak in facts. Romo’s first full season as a starting quarterback in the NFL was 2007. Since then he’s played 16 games in a season three times and every one of those times Romo has topped 4,000 yards passing. In 2008 Romo played 13 games and in 2010 he played six games. In both of those seasons Romo was well on pace to pass for over 4,000 yards again. So the following statement isn’t my opinion, it’s a documented fact: Based on prior history if Tony Romo plays 16 games he’ll throw for over 4,000 yards.
I like my quarterbacks to be dependable. I like to know what I’m getting out of them. That’s Romo. He’s like a comfortable old shoe. I can plug him in my fantasy lineup and at the end of the season he’ll give me 4,000+ yards and 28-32 touchdowns. I can live with that out of my fantasy quarterback. I can win a championship with that kind of production. Romo may not be Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady but he’s entrenched in that next group of fantasy quarterbacks and he’s in that group every single season.
Now I’m not going to get into the things that bother me about Romo as an NFL quarterback and tell you why the Cowboys will never give me the thrill of celebrating another Super Bowl title in my lifetime. This is about fantasy football and Romo has one thing Ryan doesn’t that will always benefit fantasy owners: balls.
I’m not a big stat guy but one number I like to look at with quarterbacks is yards per attempt. I hate having those “dink and dunk” guys on my fantasy team. I want my quarterback throwing the ball down the field. Romo has averaged over 8 yards per attempt four times in his career. Not only has Ryan never eclipsed 8 yards per attempt, he’s finished under 7 yards in two of his four NFL seasons. That’s why I often refer to Ryan as “Mr. Checkdown.”
So I know what you’re saying, Ryan turns the ball over less than Romo because he isn’t chucking the ball down the field as often. Not true. Ryan has thrown 46 interceptions and lost 15 fumbles in four seasons. He’s thrown double-digit picks in three of his four NFL seasons and the one year he didn’t Ryan threw 9 interceptions, so being safe hasn’t cut down on his turnovers.
I know we keep hearing how the Falcons are going to open things up this season and run a no-huddle offense. Well, someone better lock Mike Smith in a closet on gamedays then because if that guy isn’t balanced every week he starts having convulsions. With Smith’s dire need to run the football, I’ll believe this wide open passing attack when I see it. You can’t always teach an old dog new tricks and Smith is an old dog.
Both quarterbacks have two excellent receivers and a tight end to work with. The only difference is Miles Austin and Dez Bryant both admitted to not being in shape last year. Way to change the culture in Dallas Jason Garrett. Isn’t that why he was hired? Apparently Austin and Bryant feel like playing football this year and each are in excellent shape, which is mighty thoughtful of them considering it’s their job.
For all the drooling over Julio Jones, Bryant has the physical skills to become a Top 5 NFL receiver if he puts it all together and the team actually throws him the ball in the second half of games. Anyway, I think we can all admit that both Romo and Ryan have explosive weapons at their disposal, even if Jerry Jones had no Plan B in case the team lost Laurent Robinson, which it did. What I want to discuss is the Dallas offensive line.
I’ve seen every Cowboys game since the NFL Sunday Ticket came out in 1994, so I know this team. I hear all this stuff about how DeMarco Murray only scored two touchdowns last year and that number will go way up this season. Does anyone know why Murray only scored twice (one of those was a 91 yard run, by the way)? It’s because the Cowboys have one of the worst power run blocking offensive lines in the NFL and it’s been that way for years.
Go back and watch all the runs Murray had inside the 10-yard line last season and look at the push, or lack thereof, the line got. He had no chance. Dallas is similar to Detroit where its offensive line doesn’t block well in small areas. They can’t move around a lot of mass and create holes, so Murray had no place to go near the goal line. This is the reason why Dallas throws so much inside the 10 and I don’t see that changing at all this year. It’s simply the makeup of the team.
Will Dallas try and run in the red zone? Sure. Will Murray score more than twice? Probably. But make no mistake about it, the Cowboys are like the Lions, Packers, Saints and Patriots where their best call near the goal line is still Romo throwing the football. Trust me when I tell you that will remain the norm in 2012. This is a finesse football team.
In a switch from a couple of seasons ago the Cowboys tackles are now the strength of the line thanks to last year’s first-round pick Tyron Smith (and the departure of that stiff Marc Colombo)but now the interior is weak, making it difficult to run inside. I mean it’s July and the Cowboys still have no idea who their starting guards are going to be for Christ sakes.
I like Ryan. I think he’s in line for a strong season. If things fall a certain way in my draft I would be happy to have him as my starter this year. However, quarterback is the one position where I always try and go as safe as humanly possible. The safest picks on the board are Rodgers, Brady and Brees. After that, there aren’t many guys safer than a quarterback who history tells is a mortal lock for 4,000+ passing yards and roughly 30 scores.
Don’t get nuts on draft day. Stick with that comfortable old shoe. Amazingly, that’s the nicest thing I’ve ever called Romo.
-The Pigskin Guy
Follow PSG on Twitter @ThePigskinGuy
I can see the argument for Romo being a better play than Ryan, all things being equal. However, we’re really looking at a Ryan and a 5th rounder vs. Romo and a 7th rounder using the ADP values given. (I’ve seen other sites with these two as close a five spots apart, so clearly that would change things.) I’d have difficulty making a call straight up here, but given the ADP values, Ryan would be my pick 9 times out of 10.
Just curious,.. If you find difficulty making a call straight up, why would Ryan be your pick so much if you could get Romo 2 rounds later? If i was of the mind set to wait at QB, and felt it was a coin flip, i’d at least let the turn go by then take Romo 1 round later for better value.
Romo is a lot more apt to get you 6 than -2 given his almost nonexistence fear (or knowledge) of the INT. Ryan checks down almost as much as Sam Bradford for god sakes. I also don’t like the argument that Turner will lose goal line work. I agree they should cut his load, but why do it in the redzone where Turner’s been a beast, scoring double digit TD’s four years running. That being said, i can still see Ryan’s numbers going up this year just as Julio improves, could make the same case for Romo/Dez though. So Atlanta’s going to sit on Turner’s fresh legs start of this season? It’s a lot easier to say you’re going to walk, not ride the horse, till the road gets steep. Murray’s injury history is long, and Dallas’s line does have a better shot on Dancing With the Stars than actually getting push up the middle. Look at what Romo does every year. I think Matt might finally step it up, but step it up clear past what you know you’re going to get from Romo? Why take that gamble, not to mention sooner in the draft at that. If i’m aiming to draft one it’s going to be the more sure player, later, and that’s Romo.
I also think to project Ryan’s numbers for the second half of last season out for a full season, when Turner was obviously gassed, like he’s going to stumble into 2012 still gassed or something, is a little misleading. His numbers fall off a cliff why exactly? Good OC’s use the tools they have, and they still have Turner. I don’t like Turner this year anymore then most, but do we really think he’s incapable of getting 1000 yards again? The right answer is usually in the middle, so lets say they turn the burner on just right this season, not too much, not too little. Close to last years numbers but not as good. That puts Ryan’s passing numbers somewhere between 240 and 299. Hell, Romo will never win a Super Bowl but he can pass for 345 with a punctured lung. You would think one would equate to the other possibly, but no, he’ll muck it up in the 4th. For fantasy purposes i think it’s safe to say Romo, and Dallas as a team, cracks under the pressure enough to force himself to do real good. I love that! And i don’t see Murray being able to handle the load in the 4th like Turner can to close out games. Who’s not going to lean on that horse if they’re up on the scoreboard?
Waiting for a QB is a gamble right, can we agree on that much? You’re betting you can pick a good enough one, and make up on the guy who has the Discount Double Check advantage every week with better position player early. So if we’re already gambling, why are we now also doubling down on our wager by hoping for the U word to come true too? If Tony was old, if i saw the cliff coming i might shy away, but he can do what he does for at minimum one more year. I wouldn’t put tiny ass Michael Vick ahead of Romo either, for the same reason, already gambling waiting on a passer. 3300 yards passing is the best Vicks ever done, so you’re going to need the rushing too, and we know what that brings. This might be the time a friend needs to hand you a, ‘When the Fun Stops’ pamphlet
“That puts Ryan’s passing numbers somewhere between 240 and 299. Hell, Romo will never win a Super Bowl but he can pass for 345 with a punctured lung.”
Matt Ryan threw for seven fewer yards — seven — than Tony Romo last season.
Jesus, nerd is writing a column of his own. Also found interesting that Ryan was going before Romo in the ADP’s, by two rounds no less. These guys along with Rivers are the qbs I’ve been keeping an eye on during the mocks, and yet to have seen Ryan go before Romo. I’m sure your stats are accurate, just surprising.
Not sure if it was a simple error in the first comment, but Romo is the one going two rounds before Ryan in ADP, not the other way around.
I agree that they are close. The drafts I’ve been doing they have going no more than 1 round difference in the 5-6 area. I’d only side with Ryan because of the dreaded U word, upside. I believe we have seen the best of Romo, which is no means bad, but i feel this is the year Ryan steps his game up a notch. Ive been high on Ryan this year, but if I miss him I’d still be happy with Romo. It’s not like we’re comparing one of these 2 guys to the top echelons of the position, which clearly they are not.
Get your QB’s from passing teams and your RBs from running teams. Makes sense.
Long time Falcons fan here.
I hate Michael Turner this year but it doesn’t mean I love Matt Ryan this year either. I don’t trust Mike Smith to stick to a game plan and I could easily see him running with Turner like in years past. I would feel better about drafting Matt Ryan if I KNEW Turner was going to fall apart. I just think Turner miiiight have a little juice left. Something might happen in training camp though.
future faceoff ideas…decker vs. demaryius, a.j. green vs. julio jones
We already have the Decker/Thomas one in the works. I’ll see if Pundit wants to tackle the Jones/Green debate as well. Thanks for the suggestions.