It’s been a month since I updated my rankings, so I’ll be hitting each position over the next week. Here’s how it’s going to go down for the rest of the summer. I’ll be updating my preseason positional rankings three more times. This week, when training camps start and then I’ll release my final preseason rankings the week of August 13. With most fantasy drafts taking place in mid-late August now, I think that makes the most sense. Quarterback is the one position that’s pretty set but there are still a few movers. Here are my updated Top 40 fantasy quarterbacks for 2012.
2012 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings
(Last updated on July 13)
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Matthew Stafford, Lions ↑
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Cam Newton, Panthers
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers
7. Mike Vick, Eagles
8. Eli Manning, Giants
9. Tony Romo, Cowboys ↑
10. Peyton Manning, Broncos ↓
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons ↑
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
13. Jay Cutler, Bears
14. Robert Griffin, Redskins
15. Carson Palmer, Raiders
16. Andy Dalton, Bengals
17. Andrew Luck, Colts ↑
18. Matt Schaub, Texans ↓
19. Joe Flacco, Ravens
20. Josh Freeman, Bucs ↑
21. Alex Smith, 49ers
22. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
23. Sam Bradford, Rams
24. Matt Cassel, Chiefs
25. Christian Ponder, Vikings ↑
26. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans ↑
27. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals
28. Jake Locker, Titans
29. Matt Flynn, Seahawks ↓
30. Mark Sanchez, Jets
31. Brandon Weeden, Browns ↑
32. John Skelton, Cardinals ↑
33. Tim Tebow, Jets
34. David Garrard, Dolphins ↑
35. Chad Henne, Jaguars
36. Joe Webb, Vikings
37. Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks
38. Matt Moore, Dolphins ↓
39. Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars ↓
40. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins ↓
Going Up
Stafford – I did my statistical projections for quarterbacks and Stafford came in almost even with Aaron Rodgers. I have Stafford leading the NFL in passing yards this season and tossing 40+ touchdowns. Stafford is the only quarterback I have coming in right at 5,000 yards this year. I put a lot of time into player evaluations and that includes going back over my notes from last season. I take notes every week and leave them for the following year to make sure I’m not overlooking anything.
For all my Cam Newton love, it was actually Stafford I was most impressed with by the end of last season. Stafford had a great year overall but it was the final five games of 2011 where he really took that next step in my opinion. Now you look at the weapons Stafford has with Megatron, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Brandon Pettigrew and Ryan Broyles. I’ll put that group of targets up against virtually any team in the NFL.
Last year Stafford passed for over 5,000 yards and was fantasy football’s fourth leading scorer in most formats behind only the Big 3 quarterbacks. This season I believe Stafford will challenge Rodgers to be the top overall scorer. I’ve correctly predicted the passing yardage leader three seasons in a row now. I think when you look at all the variables involved, Stafford will make it four straight.
I certainly can’t complain if you draft Rodgers, Cam, Tom Brady or Drew Brees but for my money Stafford going roughly 20 picks after Rodgers makes him an attractive option. When you factor in his potential production with where he’s being drafted, Stafford offers the most value out of the Top 5 projected fantasy quarterbacks.
Speaking in terms of NFL and not fantasy, ESPN’s Ron Jaworski recently said that after watching film he believes Stafford will make the biggest jump of any quarterback in the league this season. So basically I came to the same conclusion as Jaws without having access to all of his resources. Wait, you mean that’s not what you took away from all of this?
Rivers - You can read what I have to say about Rivers in my most recent edition of The Feeding Frenzy over at Fantasy Sharks.
Ryan – I guess I’ll start buying into the Ryan hype a little with all the talk of Atlanta running a no-huddle offense. The again with Mike Smith calling the shots they’ll probably ditch that after Week 1. Smith is a good overall coach but let’s be honest his strength isn’t playcalling on gameday. I actually think Ryan is better when he’s running a quick, no-huddle attack. In my opinion that’s when he thrives. Ryan actually reminds me a little bit of Eli Manning a couple of years ago. If Ryan can progress like Eli did both fantasy owners and Falcons fans will be ecstatic.
I had Ryan as my starter three years ago and the guy sunk me. I lost a bunch of close games and his 11 points a week were one of the main reasons why. I’ve always said Ryan gets better the more he throws the ball but Smith likes to be balanced just so he can say he’s being balanced. I’ve seen that in a lot of games where Ryan is clicking but then Smith has to get the running game going for some reason. The next thing you know Ryan is out of rhythm. That’s the difference with teams like the Packers, Saints and Patriots. When their quarterbacks are on fire those coaches let them go.
So basically I’m saying I can see Ryan becoming a really good fantasy starter if Smith let’s the offense become a little more pass heavy. That’s why I moved him up a couple of spots in my rankings. If the Falcons are ever going to take the next step as a team they’re going to do so because of Ryan and his receivers, not the defense and running game. At least that’s how I see it.
Weeden – I was high on Weeden coming into the draft and while I don’t think he has a ton of fantasy value in re-draft leagues, I’m really starting to like him in dynasty league formats. The more I go back and watch Weeden’s college games the more I think he has all the tools to be a successful NFL quarterback. Again, as I wrote last month, the only real negative I see with Weeden is at times he tends to struggle with accuracy early in games. I don’t know if he’s too pumped up (a problem Brett Favre had early in his career) or what but if the Browns coaching staff can fix that problem, Weeden doesn’t have many holes in his game. Cleveland still needs to surround Weeden with a few more weapons but Greg Little and the recently added Josh Gordon are a nice start. Weeden could be an interesting waiver wire option later this year.
Coming Down
Schaub – I keep looking at this Texans offense and while I don’t see them being the 2000 Ravens, I do expect Schaub to become more of a game manager in 2012. The bottom line is when you look at how this team is built it’s different from a couple of seasons ago when wild shootouts where the norm. The strength of the Texans is now their defense and rushing attack led by the best back in the NFL, Arian Foster. So while I think Schaub will put up solid numbers, I believe his most productive fantasy days are behind him. Add the fact that both Schaub and Andre Johnson are coming back from injuries and the Houston quarterback isn’t high on my wish list this season.
Gabbert – I don’t know if Matt Barkley has ever been to Jacksonville but he may want to get himself familiar with some popular eating establishments in the area.
Tannehill – I recently watched the Texas/Texas A&M game over from this past November and while it was only one game, it’s hard for me to fathom that the quarterback I saw that night will be starting in the NFL this season. Tannehill looked completely lost against arguably the fastest, most aggressive defense in the Big 12. I’ve said all along that Tannehill is more of a project that isn’t ready to come right in and lead an NFL offense. Watching that game over only reinforced that opinion. I don’t think we see Tannehill until 2013. He still has a ways to go.
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Nice job with the rankings. 2 guys I’m liking at QB to outperform your rankings:
Big Ben - I know it’s tough to place him above any of the guys you have in front of him. That being said, he’s a really talented veteran QB that missed out on last season’s “year of the QB.” With Mendenhall injured, this team’s strength on offense is in the passing game. New OC Haley should have realized this by now and will feature Big Ben and the talented receivers (Wallace/Brown/Sanders/Cotchery/Heath Miller) the same way he did in ARI with Warner/Fitz/Boldin. This also bodes well for Brown and Wallace. Ben’s a good bet to reach career highs in yardage and TD.
Ponder - like his skill set and rushing ability. It’s also important to note that Harvin blew-up and Rudolph starting making plays once he took over at QB last season. This guy knows who his play makers are and he likes to go to them (unlike Leslie Frazier and McNabb). I think Jerome Simpson will add to this offense as well once he returns from suspension. I think Ponder has the potential to add 500 rushing yards and 2-4 rushing TD, which is a big bonus. It would not surprise me if he makes a run at the top 10.
I also still love Locker’s potential and, if he were to open the season as the starter, I would definitely rank him in my top 15.
Big Ben is just tough to rank. I want to move both him and Cutler up but every time I try I have trouble moving another guy down. I feel the same way about him though. I just moved Ponder up and I may still have a little low. I’m probably overly worried about him getting hurt on that trash of a football team. I like Locker too. I’m just going by the reports that Hasselbeck will likely be the starter, which would make Locker either a late-round flier or valuable waiver wire add later on in the season. If those reports change Locker would move way up. You opened my eyes to that one way back when I first came out with the rankings back in April.
it was a head scratcher to see ESPN’s Jaws rank Matt Stafford as the #14 best QB in the NFL. Sure, what makes a fantasy QB great isn’t the same as a real NFL QB, but I simply cannot believe there are 13 better QB’s in the NFL right now, including Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, and Jay Cutler according to Jaws?
I don’t watch ESPN so I didn’t see it. Someone just e-mailed me telling me Jaws called for Stafford to be the most improved QB. I really could care less what Jaws says. I lost all respect for his opinion when he told me a couple of years ago on MNF that Tarvaris Jackson was one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. Once you say that I pretty much stop listening.
true, everyone can be wrong occasionally, but i’ve never seen what some “experts” see in Tavaris Jackson.
Right, there’s a such thing as a difference of opinion. That’s fine. But one night he came on and seriously tried to tell us that Jackson had the skills to be a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks. That was it for me.
If Garrard or Moore win the job, how far up do they move, if at all? I actually like Garrard. Del Rio’s move to get rid of him was pretty classless (and screwed me out of my backup QB) and looking at Garrard’s fantasy production, he’s pretty solid when he’s starting. If there’s concern about the team around him, other than MJD, who did he have around him in Jacksonville?
I would move Garrard up a little because of his ability to move around and the fact that he’s shown more as an NFL quarterback. I think Moore is a very good backup quarterback like he showed last year but when you get those guys in a 16-game season they get exposed. I say Garrard has more upside if he wins the job but where are the weapons? I’ve said it all along, 85 didn’t get the ball in New England because he couldn’t get open. That’s not going to change all of a sudden in Miami. He’s old. You don’t stop getting old. Trust me, I threw out my back leaning over to brush my teeth last week. When you’re old, you’re old. It sucks.