I formed my own dynasty league last week and it looks like we’ve put together a strong group of owners. I’m pumped because I haven’t played in a dynasty league over the last couple of years but in my opinion, it offers the most fun for serious fantasy owners. I have the 11th overall pick in our first draft and I’m really looking forward to it.
I recently did my positional rankings for dynasty league owners. Now here are my Top 25 rookies for those owners not in their initial dynasty league draft like me and preparing to select only from this year’s rookie pool.
Just remember that these rankings are based on my opinions, along with my many hours of watching college football and prospect tapes from a source I have in the NFL. I don’t go to other sites and just copy their rankings. This is what I think, so you’re going to see guys ranked a lot differently here than the cookie-cutter rankings that go from site-to-site. Also, most people shouldn’t agree on rookies. In 2010 LeGarrette Blount led all rookies in rushing yards and he was an undrafted free agent. Where do you think he was ranked before the season? Right now we’re all projecting players and if every site is projecting the same players the same way, there’s something wrong.
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Trent Richardson, RB Browns
Listen, if Richardson is a bust he’s a bust. You live with it and move on. But on paper Richardson is one of the top running back prospects to come out in a long time and he’s going to get pretty much all of the touches in the Browns backfield from Day 1. The only way Richardson isn’t a fantasy stud is if he can’t play. I believe that’s a risk worth taking. Richardson will face some tough defenses in the AFC North but we’re talking about a possible Top 10 back in 2012 and a Top 5 back down the road. This is an easy call in my opinion.
2. Andrew Luck, QB Colts
Indianapolis should have a pretty strong passing game with Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in the mix. Luck has everything a team looks for in an NFL quarterback. As long as the Colts provide him a supporting cast, he’ll make fantasy owners happy for many years.
3. Robert Griffin III, QB Redskins
Griffin has a chance to be a fantasy star right away. The Redskins have speed at receiver with Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon and Griffin loves airing it out. Griffin is a polished passer and dangerous runner, so I expect him to come in and put up strong fantasy numbers as a rookie.
4. Justin Blackmon, WR Jaguars
You can go with either Blackmon or Michael Floyd here. I have them both rated about the same heading into the season. Floyd has the better situation but Blackmon will see more balls coming his way. Blackmon is a stud but Blaine Gabbert remains a big question mark. Here’s the bright side for those of you who draft Blackmon in dynasty leagues; If Gabbert is a bust in 2012 the Jaguars will be one of the frontrunners to get Matt Barkley in next year’s draft. That’s actually why I have Blackmon rated ahead of Floyd. I’m extremely high on Barkley heading into his senior season and I believe Jacksonville is where he’ll end up next April. As long as the Jaguars find a capable quarterback, Blackmon will produce big fantasy numbers.
5. Ronnie Hillman, RB Broncos
If you read my blog, you can’t be surprised I have Hillman ranked this high. Hillman will begin the season as the Broncos No. 2 back and only the aging Willis McGahee stands between him and fantasy success. It’s only a mater time before Hillman becomes the Broncos starter and a future star. I’ve been high on Hillman since I saw him as a freshman and I’m even higher on him now considering he landed in Denver. Here’s a call: Hillman will be a Top 20 pick next year in re-draft leagues. Mark it down. Hillman should be the second rookie running back off the board in dynasty leagues. Let other owners fall over themselves to get Doug Martin while you sit back and swipe Hillman. Just remember to add me to your Christmas card list when this kid becomes one of the best running backs in the NFL. If you want to know more about my thoughts on Hillman, just search his name on the front page of this blog and about 30 articles will pop up.
6. Michael Floyd, WR Cardinals
I had Floyd rated as the top receiver in this draft class and I love the fact that Larry Fitzgerald will be taking him under his wing. I believe by next season the the Cardinals will have one of the most dangerous receiver tandems in the NFL. I like Floyd in re-draft leagues but I absolutely love him in keeper leagues. I believe Floyd has the physical tools to become one of the top receivers in the NFL. Now he just needs a quarterback that can get him the ball consistently.
7. Doug Martin, RB Bucs
I like some other rookies more than Martin but he’s in one of the best situations to succeed right away. Martin will likely begin the year as the Bucs No. 1 running back and his receiving skills will be a big benefit to fantasy owners. My one negative with Martin is he’s the flavor of the month right now. His ADP is already getting out of control. I like Martin and he’ll be productive but for the long-term I would rather have Hillman or Wilson personally.
8. David Wilson, RB Giants
I thought Wilson was a Top 20 prospect in this year’s draft and it makes me feel good that Giants General Manager Jerry Reese, agrees. I’ve always thought Ahmad Bradshaw was one of the most underrated players in the NFL. However, the guy’s feet are being held together with duct tape and the Giants don’t like to overuse him. Wilson is a guy that can go 80 yards in a blink of an eye but he was also one of the toughest runners in this year’s draft class. Wilson has value as Bradshaw’s backup this season but in a year or two he has a chance to be a stud for dynasty league owners.
9. Isaiah Pead, RB Rams
Pead is a guy I thought could come in and be a change-of-pace back right away and then eventually be a starting running back in the NFL. So what do we have in St. Louis? Pead will be a third-down back at first, while being groomed to take over for Steven Jackson. Pead reminds me a lot of Ray Rice. He may be small in stature but Pead runs a lot bigger than his size. He should be high on the wish list of dynasty league owners.
10. Brian Quick, WR Rams
I saw Quick play a few times at Appalachian State and he was an absolute beast. Quick was one of those 1-AA (Yes, I’m still calling it that) players that when you watched him he really stood out. I know someone who covers 1-AA ball and the first time I saw Quick play I sent him an e-mail asking, “Who is this No. 8 for Appalachian State and why isn’t he playing for USC?” He wrote me back that Quick was a late bloomer and NFL scouts were already all over him. Quick is still a little raw but if we’re talking three years down the line, he may end up being the top fantasy receiver in this group. That sounds like a nice dynasty league pick to me. I love this kid.
11. A.J. Jenkins, WR 49ers
I had Jenkins rated as a Top 5 receiver and I wasn’t surprised at all when he was selected at the end of Round 1. I think Jenkins could be just as productive as Mario Manningham this season. He’s already a better route runner, although that’s not saying much considering Manningham is one of the worst route runners in the NFL. I’m a little concerned that Jenkins showed up to rookie camp out of shape. While I can’t comprehend how that can happen I’m hoping it’s just a bump in the road for Jenkins. Talent-wise, Jenkins was one of the most skilled receivers in this draft class.
12. Brandon Weeden, QB Browns
Weeden has the intelligence and physical skills to be successful in the NFL. What he doesn’t have is receivers. The Browns need to do a better job of giving Weeden more weapons around him. Cleveland had arguably the worst receivers in the NFL before the draft and did very little to address that problem. I understand they got a franchise running back in Richardson and a new quarterback in Weeden. They can’t fix all of their problems in one draft. However, other than Greg Little those receivers are awful and Little ranked second in the NFL in drops last year. Weeden has a lot of potential but the Browns passing game is still a work in progress. Over the long haul though I think Weeden is going to be a very good NFL quarterback.
13. Ryan Tannehill, QB Dolphins
Tannehill is a tough guy to judge because we simply haven’t seen a lot from him. One thing in his corner is new coach Joe Philbin proved to be very effective working with quarterbacks in Green Bay. Tannehill has upside, I just hope the Dolphins don’t rush him into action. Some guys like Luck are ready to come in and start right away but other young quarterbacks need more time to develop. Tannehill is in the latter category, so if you select him, don’t expect much fantasy production until 2013 at the earliest.
14. Coby Fleener, TE Colts
In terms of overall talent I actually like Dwayne Allen more than Fleener but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Andrew Luck and Fleener have been reunited in Indianapolis. I see Fleener putting up second tier tight end numbers. He’ll catch his share of passes but in my opinion Fleener doesn’t play as fast as his timed speed. In my opinion, Fleener is being overvalued right now by fantasy owners.
15. Kendall Wright, WR Titans
This was an interesting selection because I like Wright but I don’t know how much fantasy value he’s going to have off the bat. There are a number of quality receivers in Tennessee with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Damian Williams already in the mix. However, Britt recently had a second surgery on his injured knee, so if he isn’t ready to start the season, Wright’s value increases. I do believe though that either way Wright’s best fantasy days will be a couple of years down the road.
16. LaMichael James, RB 49ers
I love James. I don’t know how the 49ers are going to use him but I do know James will help that offense. I stated many times that James is a much better runner between the tackles than he’s given credit for and Jim Harbaugh has already said he could get goal line carries. That doesn’t surprise me and it would certainly add to James’ fantasy value. James is the perfect candidate for dynasty leagues. As a rookie he’ll have more value to his team than fantasy owners but he’s a guy with a bright future.
17. Rueben Randle, WR Giants
It’s always a pleasure to watch teams like the Giants draft and the selection of Randle proves my point. How a guy with his talent fell to the end of round 2 I’ll never know but the rest of the league’s stupidity is the Giants gain. I’ve said all along that Randle is a little raw because he played in LSU’s archaic offense but this is the perfect situation for him. With Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz drawing most of the defense’s attention, Randle will see a lot of man coverage as a rookie. It must be nice to be the World Champions and have three young receivers like Nicks, Cruz and Randle. That’s why Jerry Reese is the best GM in the NFL. And this is a Dallas fan talking.
18. Stephen Hill, WR Jets
I wouldn’t really touch Hill in re-draft leagues because until he becomes a better route runner, the Jets will use him primarily on fly routes. Hill could be used similar to how the Ravens used Torrey Smith last year. As far as future upside goes though, Hill has a lot of it. If you’re looking for a receiver to draft and stash, Hill is your guy. Hill is a receiver that has dynasty league written all over him.
19. Alshon Jeffery, WR Bears
As I’ve been saying since the draft ended it’s hard for me to evaluate Jeffery because I was promoting him for three years. Then he gains weight and shows up to the NFL Combine acting uninterested. I’m a believer if you have 10 players like that and you pass on all of them, you make out more than you lose. Jeffery has elite skills and he could be a Pro Bowl receiver if he stays motivated. On the other hand, he could show up to training camp out of shape and barely step foot on the field. I’ve stated all along that Jeffery is the ultimate boom or bust pick for both NFL teams and fantasy owners. It comes down to if you want to trust him or not. Jeffery is the toughest player for me to rank because I still love his talent on the field but I have no idea what to expect from him off it.
20. Ryan Broyles, WR Lions
Broyles was one of my favorite receivers in the draft. If he hadn’t hurt his knee Broyles may have snuck into the later portion of Round 1. I guess the Lions are just going to try and outscore everyone with Broyles, Titus Young and Megatron putting the fear of god into opposing defenses over the next couple of years. Broyles should be ready to start the year but because he injured his knee in November, he will likely help Detroit more over the second half of the season and in 2013. If you play in a dynasty league, I would strongly suggest moving this guy up your draft boards. In my opinion Broyles has a chance to become one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. I think he’s the next Wes Welker.
21. Mohamed Sanu, WR Bengals
The Bengals have an opening at receiver and either Sanu or fellow rookie, Marvin Jones, is going to be the likely starter opposite A.J. Green. Now I didn’t get any tape on Jones and to be honest, Cal is one of the few teams I haven’t seen a lot over the last couple of years. One thing about me is I won’t claim to know a lot about a player if I haven’t seen him play much. I feel comfortable endorsing a guy like Hillman because I’ve seen so much of him that I know his strengths and weaknesses. From what I saw of Jones at Cal, he looked good, but I’m far from an expert on the guy. Sanu I did see a lot and he’s a big physical receiver with some of the best hands you’ll ever see. The downside is Sanu has very little explosion. In college Sanu did a great job of using his big frame to shield off defenders and he’ll need to continue doing that in the NFL because he doesn’t create much separation. Sanu has a chance to be valuable in PPR leagues but I don’t see him ever becoming a star.
22. Dwayne Allen, TE Colts
I wrote before the draft that Allen was a guy fantasy owners should know. Now he didn’t land in the perfect spot, considering the Colts also drafted Fleener, but people are panicking too quickly when it comes to Allen. I remember a couple of years ago the Patriots used two high draft picks on tight ends and now both of them are ranked in the Top 5. Plus, Luck loves throwing to his tight ends. Fleener will likely have more immediate fantasy value because of his relationship with Luck but a couple of years down the road, I think Allen has a chance to be the more productive player. Allen is being ranked too low in dynasty league formats right now.
23. Robert Turbin, RB Seahawks
So many people were busy slamming the Seahawks draft overall that the Turbin pick kind of flew under the radar. Turbin is one of those bowling ball backs that’s impressive every time you see him play. Turbin split time in Utah State’s backfield with Michael Smith but he’s a physical runner with speed. He’s also a great receiver, which will only add to Turbin’s fantasy value. If you look at the Seahawks running back depth chart, there’s a good chance Turbin emerges as Marshawn Lynch’s backup. Not many people are talking about Turbin but he’s a name fantasy owners should know heading into the season.
24. Nick Toon, WR Saints
In my opinion Toon is going to be a chain mover type of receiver in the NFL. He has the toughness and hands to work across the middle and be a solid possession guy. I think we can all agree that he went to a pretty good offense. Toon is a polished receiver coming out of college and the Saints aren’t stocked at that position anymore. Toon has a chance to get on the field and contribute as a rookie. The more I look at Toon and what the Saints have at receiver, the more he’s moving up my rankings.
25. Greg Childs, WR Vikings
The Vikings took another Arkansas receiver earlier in Round 4, Jarius Wright, but I’m higher on Childs. Wright is more of a slot guy where Childs has the size (6’3, 219) to line up on the outside and be a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Wright and Joe Adams went ahead of him but Childs was the best overall receiver on the Arkansas team when he was healthy. This is an interesting situation in terms of fantasy football. The Vikings don’t have a lot of big outside receivers, so Childs has a chance to come right in and contribute. Childs is a nice sleeper receiver in dynasty leagues.
A few more for the hell of it:
Cyrus Gray, RB Chiefs
I really like Gray. I don’t know how he’s going to fit in with the Chiefs right away but he’s an intriguing prospect for the future. If Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis both stay healthy, we won’t hear from Gray this season. However, if Charles were to get hurt again, Gray could get some reps at running back. Right now he’s just a guy to keep an eye on but I like Gray’s potential for the future. I had him rated as one of the 10 best backs in this draft class.
Lamar Miller, RB Dolphins
I’m not a Miller fan. I’ve stated many times that he reminds me a lot of Felix Jones. Both guys run in a straight line. They have no wiggle to them and can’t make defenders miss. Remember Chris Henry that came out of Arizona a few years ago? People fell in love with him and Henry ended up going in Round 2 for reasons I still don’t understand. You put the tape on and it’s basically the exact same player. I didn’t like Henry and I don’t like Miller. Apparently NFL teams saw the same things I saw because this guy fell off the map since the beginning of the draft process.
Brock Osweiler, QB Broncos
I didn’t like Osweiler when he was being talked about as a potential first round pick. However, at pick 57, I like him a lot more. I think Osweiler is inconsistent but that could just be because he hasn’t played much (15 starts in college). On tape his balls sailed a lot but I’m guessing John Elway can help him fix that problem. He knows a little bit about playing quarterback in the NFL. Now you just stick Osweiler behind Peyton Manning for two years and let him improve. This is an intriguing pick because it’s the absolute perfect situation for Osweiler. He’s definitely worth a shot in dynasty leagues.
Terrance Ganaway, RB Jets
I love this pick for the Jets. I talked about Ganaway as a late-round sleeper I liked at running back and he went to a perfect team for his skills. I’m not a big Shonn Greene fan. He’s OK but I don’t believe Greene is best-suited to be a feature back in the NFL. Ganaway is obviously going to be down on the depth chart to start the season but here’s a call: Rex Ryan is going to fall in love with him. Right now Ganaway doesn’t have a ton of fantasy value but if Greene goes down, remember his name. He is a darkhorse running back dynasty league owners should keep an eye on.
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“This is what I think, so you’re going to see guys ranked a lot differently here than the cookie-cutter rankings that go from site-to-site”
This is why I come here!!! Thanks Thomas
Joe
Thanks Joe. I get e-mails that say I have guys ranked “wrong.” I don’t know what that means. Does it mean that all other sites look the same? If so that’s odd to me. Rankings should look different because they reflect personal opinion backed by reasoning. If everyone knew how things were going to turn out then I’m wondering why Victor Cruz wasn’t ranked last year. I don’t know what “wrong” means. I expect disagreement but if you tell me you have seen Hilman play and he doesn’t impress you, it doesn’t make you wrong. It just means we view the same player differently. That should happen. Thanks again.
Really liking your analysis and I will have to go over the picks later in more detail, but the one guy I cannot get behind at this point is David Wilson. In all the tape I watched of this guy, all his highlight runs are off-tackle. He hardly ever runs inside. I saw him gash for 5 yards here, six yards there inside, but I also saw him take a hard hit and cough the ball up. Maybe I missed something, but I have not seen it. Excellent speed, some wiggle, but if this is what his game is all about, he won’t have a lot of success in the league, not unless he has more success running inside.
No problem Irish. I love when people bring up different opinions on players. I think it’s ridicolous when everyone agrees on a rookie. You bring up some good points about Wilson. Fumbling could be a problem. From what I’ve seen of Wilson though he’s underrated running between the tackles. I think he certainly has a lot of talent but anything can happen. The way I look at it if I give you my opinion on 10 rookies I hope seven end up being right. I’ll take that ratio but any player can be a bust. We’ve seen that throughout history. I just hope one of the guy’s I’m right on is Hillman or I’ll have to retire. Again, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I may not agree but the last time I checked my success rate with fantasy football predictions isn’t 100%. The object if this blog is to generate discussion and to make people think. You thought about Wilson and came to the conclusion you didn’t like him. There’s nothing wrong with that.
And I could be totally wrong about Wilson as well. I look at Run DMC and he has made a living running mostly outside, it’s just not that often that you see a back with the speed and talent to do it. Just from what I saw on video, he lacks vision when running inside or maybe it was a function of the VaTech line not getting enough blocking on the second level of the defense.
I was researching all the rookie backs to see if I could find 1 or 2 can’t miss stars and to find some sleepers. I noticed Wilson was deadly in space, on stretch plays, screens, wheels routes, but just so-so running inside. One thing I am totally onboard with are your selections of Hillman and James. The bigtime analysts bash James for not being tough, not running inside and I just don’t know what film they are looking at. Oregon used James on draws constantly, and on the goal line. He actually ran very well inside because he is so hard to find. Kind of like a Dave Meggett or Sproles. Hillman is excellent between the tackles as well. could not get over some of the moves he has running inside.
They say he can’t run inside because of his size. They don’t watch anything. They said the same thing about Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.
49ers coach Jim Harbaugh hints No. 61 pick LaMichael James could be in the mix for goal-line carries.
“Just the unstoppable nature of him at the goal line,” Harbaugh said when asked what impressed him about James in college. “You could not stop (Oregon) once they got inside the 5-yard line.” Harbaugh also believes James is a “proven multi-down back.” Harbaugh knows best.
I saw that. I’m a big believer that big fat guys running near the goal line is the most overrated thing in sports. Brandon Jacobs is the worst short-yardage back in the NFL. For two years I laughed that the Chiefs took out Priest Holmes inside the 5-yard line in favor of Tony Richardson. Anyone who watched Priest play at Texas knew he was unstoppable inside the five because he could jump over a small car. Finally KC let Priest carry the ball at the goal line and all he did was score 30 touchdowns a year. I would rather have a back that can make a cut over a big fat body who just runs into the line anyway. It’s a joke. Barner is bigger than James but there’s a reason why James got those carries. He’s a very good runner between the tackles and he can make lightning quick cuts to make defenders miss. That’s what I’m looking for near the goal line.
I was trying to compare Hillman to another back in the league. Tonight I was just watching some random highlight viddys and I saw his mirror….Javid Best….minus the concussion and injury history. The resemblance is pretty close. Nearly the same height, weight, speed, moves. Just my take, but I think it’s a good match.
Yeah, that’s not a bad comparison. I think Hillman runs a little bigger inside though. I compared him to a faster version of Tiki Barber. Best isn’t a bad comparison. I mean when Best is healthy he puts up really good fantasy numbers in a PPR league, he just can’t stay on the field. Hopefully Hillman will have better luck in the health department. Thanks for the feedback.