I like to partake in some mock drafts to track the trends of where players are getting selected. I do 15-20 mocks over a couple of weeks and it’s not for me to try and draft a great fantasy team. I select guys based on my draft board but the main reason I do the mocks is so I can take notes and try to come to some conclusions that will help fantasy owners. After taking part in 17 mock drafts, I found some early trends I think owners will find interesting.
Here are my thoughts based on the mocks I’ve been a part of so far. These drafts were 12-team PPR leagues that lasted 16 rounds.
-If you’re picking at the end of Round 1, there’s a good chance you will be able to get Darren McFadden if you want him. I’ve picked in the 11 hole 10 times and ended up with McFadden on nine of those occasions. The one time I didn’t McFadden went the pick before mine. So if you’re targeting McFadden at the end of the first round, it looks like there’s a good chance he’ll be available.
-Marshawn Lynch isn’t going in Round 1. I was able to get the McFadden/Lynch duo in almost all of my drafts. I didn’t go in thinking that way but the trend kept dictating those two picks for me. Larry Fitzgerald has been going between picks 10-13 in almost every draft I’ve done, so it’s hard to grab him after the turn. I think if you can get Fitzgerald at 11 and come back with Lynch in Round 2 that’s a great start but then again I’m higher on Lynch than a lot of people.
-I went with the two running backs a majority of the time in these first mocks just for the heck of it but I don’t see myself doing that on draft day. One reason is a guy like Darren Sproles. Sproles may be the best value on the board right now. People aren’t sniffing Sproles before Round 3 and in most cases he’s going in the late third round. If you grab two studs early at other positions and team them with Sproles in Round 3, you’re doing work in my opinion.
-One guy not even on the map right now is James Starks. I’ve been getting him as late as Round 11. Whether you like Starks or not at some point grabbing the starting running back on one of the NFL’s top scoring offenses makes sense. The earliest I saw Starks go was Round 8 but most of the time he’s being selected between the ninth and eleventh rounds, which is great value in my opinion.
-People aren’t buying into Isaac Redman yet, which I’m sure makes a lot of astute fantasy owners happy. I’ve been grabbing Redman in Round 7 of some drafts, which is great value in my opinion. I mean the guy has very little competition for carries right now. If you like Redman you can get him in the fifth round area based on the early mock drafts I’m seeing.
-As I predicted going into these drafts, Rounds 3-7 offer amazing value for receivers. There are so many good receivers right now that guys like Steve Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Dez Bryant and even Steve Smith, just to name a few, can be had in those middle rounds. For those of you that want to take a quarterback early I would advise going QB/RB with your first two picks. Then target Sproles in Round 3 and stock up on receivers with your next four picks. I think you can build a monster fantasy team that way if you draft the right guys from what I’m seeing out of these early mocks.
-If you do decide to wait on a quarterback, don’t wait too long. I used the waiting on a QB theory in all of my mocks and I kept losing out on guys I wanted. I ended up with Jay Cutler as my starter 10 out of 17 times. I like Cutler but that’s not really my ideal situation. From what I’m seeing, Round 7 appears to be the cut-off point for perceived starting fantasy quarterbacks. That’s where guys like Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan are coming off the board most often. If you’re targeting one of those quarterbacks a little later in the draft, you may be out of luck if you wait too long.
-If you don’t want to take one of the top two tight ends early on, there are some great options between Rounds 5-8. In the drafts I’ve seen, Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis and Brandon Pettigrew are all going between those three rounds. I have to be honest, none of those tight ends are Rob Gronkowsi but I would be more than happy if I ended up with one of them in the seventh or eighth round.
-If I had to name the best late-round pick I’m seeing so far it’s Lance Moore. Remember, these are PPR leagues and I’m still getting Moore as late as Round 12. I know Moore isn’t a stud but in a PPR league it’s not bad getting the Saints second best receiver to be your WR5. Moore is the epitome of a solid reserve receiver you can throw in the starting lineup if you need him. Guys like him and Nate Washington are the kinds of veteran receivers I like to target later on in the draft.
-I ended up drafting Eric Decker in Round 6 and Ronnie Hillman in Round 9 in all but two drafts. In one draft I missed out on Decker and in another someone took Hillman just before my selection. One note on Hillman though; the mainstream media is starting to stumble upon him. These guys are killing Hilman’s value. It’s funny because before the draft no one mentioned his name other than to say he dances too much. Now all of a sudden he’s the next LeSean McCoy. My guess is Hillman is about to go from undervalued to overvalued. What a kick in the stones.
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I have done a lot of mocks on the calculator spot 9, and I consistently get Matthews, TRich, Aj Green, Julio Jones, and 5th pick Im hoping trying to land Redman, Helu, or BGJE. I would be very happy if this actually happened on draft day… but I have my doubts
Right Josh. Every league is its own entity. The best we can do right now is kind of give an overview of what is happening. Like I said with Ronnie Hillman, his days of going in Round 11 are over. Although, I do believe Redman will stand pat. He’s just one of those non-flashy guys people won’t fall in love with. Two guys I like in that area are Redman and Reggie Bush. I believe they will be solid 5th round picks come August.
I’m one of those people weary on Redmen. If my draft was tomorrow, then of coarse he would be a steal as to were he is being drafted here. I just dont see the Steelers not adding any depth there. I can see a Benson, Grant or some other veteran back landing there before the season starts. I plan on waiting for QB also, but def plan on having one before the end of rd 6, if you consider that waiting. Where was Eli & Rivers going in these mocks? Feel like people are not giving thses guys the credit they deserve, which i know you’ve mentioned in past articles. I would be very happy yo get either one in rd 5. Also i agree with Sproles, espicially in PPR. If he is not gone by the end of rd 2, i want to join that league
Well Budrick you are talking about a situation changing. Right now I like Redman in Round 5 but if the Steelers add another RB then I will have to re-evaluate things. Same thing with Starks in Green Bay. As I’ve said before, I like Redman’s situation more than I do his overall skill set. I’m seeing those two quarterbacks go in the Round 5-6 area. Eli seems to be getting more love than Rivers right now. If you like one of them I would say target Rivers in Round 5. That is good value in my opinion. Even with his bad year Rivers was still a Top 15 fantasy player in 2011. If he improves at all, which I believe he will, you have a Top 10 fantasy player in Round 5. People are still down on him though from last season.
by the way, this has quickly become the best fantasy website around, thanks for giving us fantasy junkies some offseason fixes!!
Thanks a lot Budrick. I’m always looking for new ways to help owners out so if you have any suggestions please throw them my way.
Easily the best around ,thanks for all your hard work, the trouble now is everyone is looking for the next Arian Foster,soon it will be back to Ryan Williams and Mikel LeShoure,cheers
Thanks Mike, I appreciate it. By the way, let’s not forget about Ryan Williams. I’m actually glad you mentioned him because I feel I need to start banging the drum for Williams again. He was one of the most talented players in last year’s draft and if he’s healthy, now we have a RB with some value. I’m going to start the Ryan Williams love-fest again. I think people fall in love with rookies but we also forget about guys that didn’t have great rookie seasons the previous year. Williams got hurt, he didn’t lose his talent. If his knee is OK, we have a nice sleeper. Thanks again.
Mocks MOCKS???? I hate mock drafts and don’t do them anymore. People play too many games and try things out…. What I love is the small money LEAGUES - All Play with no management and When people put money on the line I think it’s a bit more realistic AND - Why not make some money off the early season info you think you’re ahead of the curve on…. Lovin’ the $77.00 leagues at FFPC !!!!! Love CASHING IN!!!!!
I draft mostly in that format now (2 Flex Spots, 1.5 ppr TE’s) for a better grasp on where the TE”s go and the ADP of that style… BTW. Sproles just went at 2.11 in the one I’m in now. Hillman Round 12 - Damn me for waiting. Had to get Pettigrew (the last of that TE tier) in round 4.
I agree with you Stampats but remember not everyone plays FF to the extent that we do. That’s one thing I always have to remember with the site. A lot of things right now I put up for discussion purposes. What you do makes sense for the serious owner. If it were up to me I wouldn’t do rankings. I think they’re overrated. I would just give you players I like and don’t like but people want rankings. They love them. The mocks don’t help me draft better because the 11 other people in my league aren’t in them. That’s not why I do them. However, they give us a blueprint for discussion and I believe that’s beneficial overall to fantasy owners in May but I understand your point as well.
1.5ppr for a TE is a joke. I would not take part in that. Maybe 10 years ago, but the TE position has grew way too strong for that. Gronk and Graham prob led your led your league in scoring. I feel mock drafts help a great deal as far ADP. I always do a bunch before the real thing, and for the most part, my drafts went VERY closely to them. Of coarse, everone knows who will be gone by the end of rd 4, but its knowing who to take in the later rds that keep me competitive year in & year out
I’m doing the Pros vs. Joes draft over at Fantasy MoJo just for fun and that’s the scoring they use. I have to change my draft board around because I’m not used to playing with that scoring system. As you said, I’m assuming Gronk and Graham are both Top 10 picks considering they are Top 20 picks without the extra .5 per reception.
If folks are reading this in May, i’d bet they play FF to the extent of those commenting, we’re all addicted. Why hate on rankings, and the ADP we obtain from mocks? You gotta take into consideration how much better that guy you like over there, is going to perform over that other guy you like over there, given there situation on there respective teams, and where there real value starts rising as they fall in a draft. This all boils down to points in the end. Rankings are a must IMO.
I’m not saying rankings don’t have their place but for me it’s more important to know where Dez Bryant is being selected than ranked. Like I say my WR rankings between 10-20 are just numbers. They are pretty close in my book. If Eric Decker is going in Round 7 and Bryant in Round 3 and I like both guys, I’m not going to draft Decker first even if he’s ranked higher. So while I’m not saying rankings are useless, I personally enjoy ADP stuff more because it helps me use my rankings to their full effectiveness. I don’t know if it makes any sense but that was my main point.
Curious as to where the top QB’s (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Cam, Stafford) are being selected in the mocks you’ve participated in.
High. Stafford has slipped to the mid third Round a few times but none of them went any lower. Like I said, I didn’t look at QB until Round 5 but I kept missing out on guys just before my pick. The bottom line is if you want one of the studs you better secure a player before the end of the second round. You will be taking a risk otherwise from what I’ve seen. In the next batch I’ll be taking a QB early and see how that pans out.
Hi, love the site. Are you concerned that Green will outplay Starks? Thanks
Thanks a lot for checking out the site. I like Green a lot if he’s healthy. Still, it’s more for later in the season. He may be more talented than Starks but the Packers will likely go with the guy who knows the offense because of pass protection. I’m doing ADP on second-year players for tomorrow. Green is going in round 15. I like taking him as a late-round selection. I still like Starks but if he’s not getting the job done in the first month, Green has a shot to take over and be very productive. I’ll be talking a lot more about Green in the coming weeks. Thanks for the question.
Love the site. Great info. Thought I’d pull a little knowledge from you. I know you said you’re high on Marshawn. I play in a keeper league and have to choose from Ray Rice, Marshawn and Andre Johnson. Obviously keeping Rice but torn between the other two. Any thoughts?
Thanks Wes. Without knowing your scoring system or anything like that I would lean slightly towards Johnson and I’ll tell you why. I like Lynch a lot this year but the way he runs I can see him dropping off quickly in the near future. I know Johnson has had injuries but he’s still an elite receiver when healthy. I like securing elite players at different positions if possible in your format. So while I do like Lynch I would probably go Rice and AJ, especially if this is a PPR league. It’s close though so if others have an opinion feel free to chime in. I think people are getting too scared off Johnson though. He’s not done yet. I hope this helped. Good luck.
Thanks for the info. I have been leaning toward AJ since the season ended. I know the running back core is thin this year but I also pick 6th in the first round so hopefully still have the opportunity to get someone like a Sproles as a possible RB2. Side note question…obviously all of the stud QB’s are getting kept in our league (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Newton, Stafford)…I had Romo last year and have a distinct feeling I may end up with him again. Any one of the tier 2 QB’s who stands out this year?
I like Rivers a lot. I also like Big Ben in that new offense with his emerging receivers. Either one of those two or Romo is good enough to lead a well-rounded fantasy team to a championship in my opinion. If you can get Sproles to go along with that group I would do so for sure.