I try not to look at my rankings too much after positing because every time I do I want to update them. Well, I got caught looking at my running back rankings and the next thing you know I’m moving guys around again. The top of my rankings remain unchanged but there’s some movement after the first eleven. I’ll be hitting tight ends on Friday but for now here’s my Top 75 fantasy running backs.
2012 Fantasy Running Back Rankings
(Last updated on May 24)
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Arian Foster, Texans
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
5. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
6. Chris Johnson, Titans
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders
8. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
9. Trent Richardson, Browns
10. Matt Forte, Bears
11. Darren Sproles, Saints
12. Adrian Peterson, Vikings ↑
13. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys ↑
14. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants ↓
15. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
16. Steven Jackson, Rams
17. Fred Jackson, Bills ↓
18. Reggie Bush, Dolphins ↑
19. Frank Gore, 49ers ↓
20. Michael Turner, Falcons ↑
21. Doug Martin, Bucs ↓
22. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
23. Isaac Redman, Steelers ↑
24. James Starks, Packers ↑
25. Roy Helu, Redskins ↓
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals ↑
27. Shonn Greene, Jets ↑
28. C.J. Spiller, Bills
29. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
30. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
31. Willis McGahee, Broncos ↓
32. Peyton Hillis, Chiefs
33. Jahvid Best, Lions
34. Michael Bush, Bears
35. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
36. LeGarrette Blount, Bucs ↑
37. Mark Ingram, Saints ↓
38. Donald Brown, Colts
39. Ben Tate, Texans
40. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
41. Kendall Hunter, 49ers ↑
42. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers ↑
43. David Wilson, Giants
44. Felix Jones, Cowboys
45. Pierre Thomas, Saints
46. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons ↑
47. Isaiah Pead, Rams
48. Ryan Williams, Cardinals ↑
49. Shane Vereen, Patriots
50. Mikel Leshoure, Lions
51. Mike Goodson, Raiders ↑
52. Tim Hightower, Redskins ↓
53. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins ↓
54. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
55. Mike Tolbert, Panthers
56. Bernard Scott, Bengals
57. Dion Lewis, Eagles ↑
58. LaMichael James 49ers ↑
59. Kevin Smith, Lions ↑
60. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers ↓
61. Evan Royster, Redskins ↑
62. Delone Carter, Colts
63. Robert Turbin, Seahawks ↑
64. Javon Ringer, Titans ↓
65. Brandon Jacobs, 49ers
66. Jason Snelling, Falcons ↓
67. Christopher Ivory, Saints
68. Bernard Pierce, RB Ravens ↑
69. Alex Green, Packers ↑
70. Taiwan Jones, Raiders ↑
71. Le’Ron McClain, Chargers
72. Joseph Addai, Patriots ↓
73. Curtis Brinkley, Chargers ↓
74. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
75. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
Going Up
Hillman - Just search his name on the front page of my blog and 30+ articles will come up. Even I’m getting sick of talking about him at this point.
Mathews - I loved Mathews so much when he was at Fresno State that I actually selected him No. 9 overall in my fantasy draft when he was a rookie. That’s how much confidence I have in his ability. Mathews has all the talent in the world and I’m starting to like him as my possible first round pick once again this year. I believe he can be the top scoring back in fantasy football if he plays 16 games. Hopefully, Mathews won’t be a tease his entire career but instead he’ll become the next Fred Taylor. Remember Taylor was always nicked up early in his career but once he finally stayed healthy, Taylor was a monster. Mathews reminds me of Taylor a little bit, so hopefully his career will follow the same path. He could be huge this year.
Starks - I liked Starks coming out of the draft a couple of years ago and I’m still high on him. The Packers will never run the ball a lot but I think Starks’ skill-set is a good fit for Green Bay’s offense. Now with Ryan Grant out of the way, Starks should post career bests across the board in 2012. If he doesn’t, it’s a problem. With an ADP of Round 7 in PPR leagues, Starks offers some good value for fantasy owners. Everything is in place for Starks to have the best season of his career and getting the Packers starting running back in the seventh round isn’t bad. I do like Alex Green as well in the late rounds but right now Starks is clearly the man in Green Bay.
Hunter - If you want a perfect example of how rookies are overvalued look no further than Hunter and LaMichael James. Now I love James almost as much as I do Hillman. The only difference is Hillman ended up in a better spot to help fantasy owners immediately. I don’t like to use the word “special” very often but in my opinion James is a special talent.
Now having said all that, it’s absurd that James and Hunter are getting selected in the exact same area (Pick 148). Hunter showed a lot of potential as a rookie and he’s much further along in terms of knowing the 49ers offense. James is going to be used a lot on special teams and as an instant offense kind of back but Hunter will see more touches overall. If something were to happen to Frank Gore it would be Hunter, not James, who would see the bulk of the carries. Brandon Jacobs will have a role as well but his days of being a lead back in the NFL are long over.
So this is a case where a big-name rookie is actually helping fantasy owners because the addition of James has shied people away from Hunter. I think that’s a mistake. As much as I like James for the long-term, I’ll be more than happy to grab Hunter in Round 13 this season. In my opinion he’s one of the most undervalued players so far in early mock drafts.
Ryan Williams – My Ronnie Hillman of last year, Williams injured his knee in preseason and never played a down. I said after he was drafted that once Beanie Wells got injured (a mathematical certainty) Williams would come in and never give up the starting job. We would of had a chance to see if I was right if not for Williams’ injury.
So basically we’re back to the same exact spot this season. Wells is talented but he’s also the one player in the NFL I feel comfortable guaranteeing won’t play 16 games. OK, maybe Malcom Floyd too. Since Williams is coming off a serious injury himself, I want to see how he looks once he returns in training camp. Based on last year though, I had Williams ranked as one of the Top 15 players in the draft.
We know Beanie will go down at some point (again, a mathematical certainty), so if Williams looks healthy, getting him in Round 9 could prove to be a steal. Also, dynasty league owners should be all over Williams assuming his knee checks out.
Coming Down
Fred Jackson - I still like Jackson for the upcoming season but I dropped him a little in the rankings because you can get him in Round 3 of most fantasy drafts. C.J. Spiller is on the verge of being a special player but I think Jackson holds him off for one more year in Buffalo. Still, there’s no denying Spiller’s role in the offense is going to increase after his strong finish to 2011, so that will eat into Jackson’s touches. Two good backs in Buffalo though and I would happy owning either of them this season.
Helu - This poor bastard can’t catch a break. Listen, I still like Helu and think he has a chance to put up strong numbers this season but the Tim Hightower signing hurts his overall value no matter how you slice it. The biggest problem in PPR leagues is Helu caught 49 balls last year but Hightower will likely play more on passing downs because he’s such a good blocker. I’m high on Helu as a player but I don’t know if he’ll ever be an every-down back. He wasn’t used that way at Nebraska and if the Redskins were comfortable with Helu in that role they probably wouldn’t have re-signed Hightower. This is obviously a situation worth monitoring throughout the summer.
Ingram - Ingram’s latest knee procedure isn’t expected to be serious but three knee surgeries in three years is never a good sign for a running back. Now the Saints aren’t sure if Ingram will even be ready for training camp. That’s too many red flags for me when we’re talking about a guy that plays in a crowded backfield and is getting selected in Round 8 on average. I now have Darren Sproles at No. 11, as I start to sour on Ingram.
Daniel Thomas - I’ve never been a big Thomas fan. The thing I pointed out about Thomas coming out of college is he’s way too tentative running between the tackles. I think that criticism was justified considering Thomas was one of the worst short yardage backs in the NFL last year. Remember people claiming Thomas was this great goal line back? Well, he scored zero rushing touchdowns as a rookie despite getting at least 11 carries (ones I saw personally) from inside the 5-yard line. I’m awful at math but even I know a 0% success rate isn’t very good.
Thomas’ current ADP puts him in Round 9 and that’s too high for me. Thomas didn’t look like an NFL running back when I watched him at Kansas State and he didn’t look like one as a rookie. He’ll need to get a lot better fast to help fantasy owners this season and beyond. I do love Reggie Bush more and more though. I think with Joe Philbin now in Miami Bush will have the best season of his career. I moved Bush up to 18 in my updated rankings. He’s a really nice pick in the late-fourth/early-fifth round area.
Addai - Early mock drafts have Addai going in Round 12 on average. People do realize it’s 2012, right? I thought Addai was average coming out of LSU. In the NFL I thought he was a slightly above average running back who benefited from playing in the perfect offense. Now he’s below average, always injured and old . No thanks.
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IMHO it’s sort of a mess at RB after the top 9 in your rankings are off the board. That’s why I really want to have at least 1 of those guys this year. If picking towards the end of rd 1, I will most likely grab 2 of them. As has been discussed on this site many times, there’s great value at WR and QB in rounds 4-7. I’d be very good with a 1st 5 rounds of Mathews, Richardson, Vick, Julio & Dez.
I couldn’t agree more. I would say Top 11 in a PPR league because I think Sproles is a pretty safe bet in that format. After that though it’s as wide open as I’ve ever seen it. I mean Murray is going in the beginning of Round 2. I like the kid but that just shows how weak people view the RB position this year.
Regarding Doug Martin & Blount (this carries over from your rookie ADP post) are you really that concerned about Blount getting that many touches in TB? This is the same guy that got beat out by world beaters Earnest Graham and Kregg Lumpkin last season. Think about that for a few seconds…Martin’s ADP is a little high but I’m certainly more worried about someone like Spiller or Bush cutting into FJax’s and Forte’s stats then I am about Blount hurting Martin at this point.
I’m on the fence on that one to be honest. I could see Blount being a big part of the offense but on the other hand I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he got cut either. I believe it all depends on how Schiano feels about him. I mean I still have Martin ranked pretty high for a rookie. My only point is we tend to get too high on rookie running backs. I like Martin to have a solid fantasy year but the reason I pointed him out is because on no planet would I ever take him over a guy like Julio Jones. Maybe I’m too high on Jones but in Round 4 I wouldn’t even flinch between those two and I don’t care what my team looks like at that point. In my opinion Martin is closer to the running backs that are going in Round 5 or 6 than he is the ones going in Round 3. Again, I like him but I don’t reach for rookies. Not even Ronnie Hillman. That just gets you into trouble over the long haul. I do agree more and more about Jackson in Buffalo though but like I’ve written a few times I’ve been wrong every step of the way on that one, so I wouldn’t listen to me. Thanks as always for the comment. They always make me look further into things which I appreciate.
You scoffed at Greg Little being drafted around the same place this year, as last. I agree man, he’s the only real WR in CLE and should go higher. But by the same logic, how the heck does RUN DMC seem to every year go end of 1st, beginning of 2nd? All he’s shown us is he’s MAJOR injury prone, not just bumped and bruised, lisfranced! It’s not just you, i know its me, most like him there again this year, i feel like he’s my Groundhogs Day every year, ha. I want to understand it, but Bennie Wells is more durable for god sakes!..but ya i like Ryan Williams (again) as well.
I think it’s the fact that when McFadden is healthy he’s one of the most talented backs in the NFL. That draws people in. Plus, I think because there is a lot of uncertainty at RB, people are more likely to take a chance on a guy with his talent and hope he plays 16 games. You make a good point about his injury history and to be honest, I don’t have a good argument against it. I usually downgrade players like that but like you said I’m probably blinded by what he does for six games every year. If you stay away from all guys like McFadden and Beanie you will make out in the end. Having said that I’ll probably end up with McFadden at No. 11 and then complain that I drafted him. Last year I got lucky and traded him away the week before he got hurt. You can’t rely on that happening every year though. He’s a good guy to debate because you can fall in love with his talent but as you pointed out if history is any indicator, he’s not going to make it through a full season. I may just grab a stud QB and stockpile receivers this year. Maybe go with Peyton Hillis and Ronnie Hillman as my backs and throw the ball every down. lol
I’m reading so much of late, many places, how the RB pool gets weak fast. Maybe it’s more watered down to an extent due to the steady increase in passing the last few seasons, but unless you’re not in a PPR league, i still don’t think it’s bad. I feel like folks are forgetting a 16 round draft gives a lot of opportunity to find 3 or 4 good RB’s, and with all the injuries GOING to happen to runners and the 14 weeks to fill a hole from the wire, i’ll wear my lucky shirt to the draft as always, but i wont draft like i did when i got it. Going RB/RB early is dinosauric.
I think when we say “weak” we mean in terms of guys getting all the carries. Trent Richardson is in a unique situation in 2012 because very few veterans get his number of touches anymore. I agree that there are good players. A guy like Hillis will be a productive flex player at the very least. The adjustment us fantasy owners have had to make is there are a lot of good backs but so many of them share time now. That’s what I mean if I say “weak.” I’m not referring to the players but more the way they get used today. There are still plenty of good backs to pick from though.
@Nerd: I really think it all depends on where you are drafting this year. If I’m drafting in the #1-4 slot, then I’m most likely taking one of the top 4 RB (Foster, McCoy, Rice, MJD). If drafting after those slots, I will have to see who’s left on the board and make a quick decision. If I do get one of those top 4 picks, then I’m prob not going to take a RB in rd 2 unless someone like Richardson, Lynch, or your favorite- Run DMC makes it back to me. Assuming those 3 are gone, then I’m most likely going take a WR & QB with my next 2 picks - meaning I don’t like any of the remaining RB enough to take them late rd 2/early rd 3.
I agree about Run DMC and feel like a sucker for wanting to draft him again this season but the talent and production is so great when he’s healthy. Plus, the team just let one of the best #2 RB & TD vultures go to a new team, so there are even more fantasy points there for the taking if he can just stay healthy. Like PSG said earlier, everyone was down big-time on Fred Taylor after his 4th season, in which he got injured and only played in 2 games. He had also battled injury problems in seasons 2 & 3 and missed many games. However, he came back strong in seasons 5 & 6 and played a full 16 games each season. Obviously, he wasn’t the injury prone back that everyone believed him to be.
Also, RB is no different than WR & QB in that there are going to be multiple middle & late rd picks that surprise and perform as early rounders. If you take your WR and QB early, then you better hit on at least 1 RB later and vice versa. This season, I believe that more upper tier WR and QB talent will be available later in the draft than at RB.
I have the exact same draft strategy regarding the Top 4 picks. If you get one of those, I say take a RB for sure. But I pick 11 in my initial dynasty league for instance and I have no clue who I’m taking. I probably won’t know until I’m on the clock. May be a little early to take Hillman. lol Then again, by the time August rolls around his ADP will probably be in Round 2.
It also depends on the league rules that you are in. If the top few QB spots out perform RB by a good enough margin then I’d rather take the top QB. But if the scoring rules are more evenly matched then yes take the elite RB only because of there scarity these days. But its pretty hard to pass up on a Rodgers or Brady who has consistantly good to great weeks and take a Foster or McCoy instead. But again it all depends on your leagues rules.
No doubt that your league scoring has the biggest impact on how you should draft. My rankings are based on a certain scoring method. With a site like this it would be impossible to rank players by every scoring system unless I had an automated system to do it for me. I tell people all the time to always adjust rankings based on your particular league. Trust me, I’ve seen some wild scoring systems out there. That’s not my thing but some people love them.
Agreed there are some crazy systems. My main league is a fairly balanced auction league. I used to do a few snake leagues several years back but I’ve found there’s more strategy and fun involved in the auctions. Your rankings though are pretty accurate from what I’ve seen. I use to read some of your stuff over on FS. Glad you started this one up.
Thanks Mike. I’m looking to get more into the auction stuff in the next couple of years. I’ve done a couple and more and more people are really getting into it. I’m studying it this year and then next season I’ll have more auction articles up for sure. Thanks for the feedback.
What’s your take on Chris Johnson? You think he’ll go back to being a fantasy god or at least stud? Last year in my league someone used pick #2 with him and by the time he started producing his season was in the trash already. He looks like a tempting back to take for me at the end of RD1 if he’s there, and taking into account that I’d still be in position to take Richardson starting RD2.
Same question for AP. He says he’s healthy, he held some of those joke workouts where guys run in their underwear against unmoving objects to show us his injury is in the past. I can’t help but think “yeah, you will have pads, helmet and linemen raining down on you, something tells me you won’t run exactly the same”.
#13 to #19 are guys who will produce but it’s hard to tell how much, and they are most of the guys we are going to end up picking in RDs2 and 3, I hope you keep us up to date with training camp on those guys, I’m a Jamaal Charles believer since I was “stuck” with him that year when he was a returner and suddenly he had over 1300 yards, so I want him on my team, but repaired knee, with Peyton Hillis and Jackie Battle…recipe for average season.
I’m one of the guys high on Johnson. I would have no problem taking him in Round 1. As I’ve written a few times before I think last year was a perfect storm against him. CJ is known to have a big ego and I think he comes back with a vengeance this year. Peterson I’m a little more cautious about. I love the guy but in a PPR league Gerhart is going to be a big pain in the ass because he’s taken over that pass-catching role. In a PPR format I think Peterson gets downgraded a little. Don’t worry about training camp. I’ll probably have a daily recap from around the league. It will be here soon, thank God.
I definitely have CJ on my radar, I hope he has fallen from grace from people so that I can snatch him up at a low cost. Low cost being late/mid first round of course.
And the NFL sure knows how to make us addicted, last year and this year I have been counting the days for training camps to open, just so I can have actual NFL news.
@ Marlin: If you’re picking 3or4, (since i’m a gambler) i agree take the stud runner first, and hope for one of the top 5 QB’s to still be there late round two. More i think about it, more i like the 3 spot. But it’s too big a risk IMO to do from the 1or2 hole. At the moment all top 4 QB’s are going before you’d pick again. If Stafford’s ADP moves up just a tick you won’t get him either at pick 23/24. So you’ll have to go WR in 2, and have White, Marshall, or AJ Green lets say, to go with Foster or Coy. I don’t think i want the 1,2 hole, but if i was forced, i’d still pull Rodgers name, then come back with Graham, and Sproles or Turner, and if i reach for Bush later i’ll be sitting prettier IMO. because we all know 4-7 are full of WR’s, and there the most up/down scoring position each week depending on the shut down corner there up against anyway. If you have Foster/White who you getting at QB to make up the 125 fpts you just whiffed on? You’re really unlikely to find Brady like numbers in 6, or on the wire, as easily as i’ll find a runner to fill in if i need it. Again 16 rounds and 14 weeks to find 2-3 before the playoffs? I got that, that blooms every year.
You said “RB is no different than WR & QB in that there are going to be multiple middle & late rd picks that surprise and perform as early rounders”.
I think Cam spoiled you a bit, that isn’t true with QB’s. If you pass on the top 5 QB and start on your core one round sooner you can’t have that 1st rounder get injured or underperform, something a lot more likely with an RB then a QB, you also have to make up that gap before you concede your lead by picking QB. I don’t like going QB in 1 much either, but not doing so forces me to pick perfect before i do, or it wasn’t worth it. I think of it as a Band-Aid i’m just gonna get pulled off sooner then later