The Pigskin Guy

Source: yahoo.com

I created this blog two months ago, so a lot of my time has been spent evaluating rookies because we were right in the middle of the NFL Draft. Since the draft ended a month ago, the rookie class has been discussed to the point where it’s almost becoming counterproductive. I mean how many different ways can I tell you I like Ronnie Hillman and don’t like Lamar Miller?

I thought now would be a good time to put the rookies on the back-burner for a while and look at second-year players. Those guys are always interesting because while people tend to fall in love with rookies and drive up their ADP, some second year players can get lost in the shuffle. There are a lot of guys entering their second season that I view as undervalued right now. Here’s a look at the current Average Draft Position of second-year players, along with who’s being undervalued and overvalued.

Based on a 12-team PPR league flex format

Round 2
DeMarco Murray, RB Cowboys (16)

Round 3
Cam Newton, QB Panthers (26)
A.J. Green, WR Bengals (35)

Round 4
Julio Jones, WR Falcons (43)
Roy Helu, RB Redskins (47)

Round 7
Stevan Ridley, RB Patriots (73)

Round 8
Torrey Smith, WR Ravens (86)
Mark Ingram, RB Saints (90)

Round 9
Mikel Leshoure, RB Lions (98)
Denarius Moore, WR Raiders (100)
Daniel Thomas, RB Dolphins (105)
Ryan Williams, RB Cardinals (107)

Round 11
Andy Dalton, QB Bengals (122)
Titus Young, WR Lions (127)
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB Falcons (128)

Round 12
Greg Little, WR Browns (134)

Round 13
Evan Royster, RB Redskins (148)
Kendall Hunter, RB 49ers (150)
Taiwan Jones, RB Raiders (152)
Vincent Brown, WR Chargers (153)
Shane Vereen, RB Patriots (155)

Round 14
Delone Carter, RB Colts (158)
Christian Ponder, QB Vikings (161)
Jake Locker, QB Titans (163)

Round 15
Alex Green, RB Packers (170)

Undervalued

Williams - My Ronnie Hillman of last year, Williams injured his knee in preseason and never played a down. I said after he was drafted that once Beanie Wells got injured (a mathematical certainty) Williams would come in and never give up the starting job. We would of had a chance to see if I was right if not for Williams’ injury.

So basically we’re back to the same exact spot this season. Wells is talented but he’s also the one player in the NFL I feel comfortable guaranteeing won’t play 16 games. OK, maybe Malcom Floyd too. Since Williams is coming off a serious injury himself, I want to see how he looks once he returns in training camp. Based on last year though, I had Williams ranked as one of the Top 15 players in the draft.

We know Beanie will go down at some point, so if Williams looks healthy, getting him in Round 9 could prove to be a steal. Also, dynasty league owners should be all over Williams assuming his knee checks out.

Little - I’m a little confused by this one. Little is basically being drafted in the same area he was last year as an unproven rookie. Little had his ups and downs as a rookie but in my opinion he showed more good than bad. I’ll say it again; I saw one NFL-caliber receiver on the Browns last year and it was Little. I mean the guy caught 61 passes in his first season on a bad offense. Just think if Little had caught half the balls he dropped. That total would have exceeded 70. Plus, can the Browns passing game really get any worse than it was last season? I say no if only for the fact that defenses have to focus on Trent Richardson instead of Chris Ogbonnaya. I don’t want to get too high on a Cleveland receiver but I could see myself taking Little 2-3 rounds higher than his current ADP.

Hunter - If you want a perfect example of how rookies are overvalued look no further than Hunter and LaMichael James. Now I love James almost as much as I do Hillman. The only difference is Hillman ended up in a better spot to help fantasy owners immediately. I don’t like to use the word “special” very often but in my opinion James is a special talent.

Now having said all that, it’s absurd that James and Hunter are getting selected in the exact same area (Pick 148). Hunter showed a lot of potential as a rookie and he’s much further along in terms of knowing the 49ers offense. James is going to be used a lot on special teams and as an instant offense kind of back but Hunter will see more touches overall. If something were to happen to Frank Gore it would be Hunter, not James, who would see the bulk of the carries. Brandon Jacobs will have a role as well but his days of being a lead back in the NFL are long over.

So this is a case where a big-name rookie is actually helping fantasy owners because the addition of James has shied people away from Hunter. I think that’s a mistake. As much as I like James for the long-term, I’ll be more than happy to grab Hunter in Round 13 this season.

Vereen - I’m a big Stevan Ridley guy. I have been since he was at LSU and I do believe Ridley has the most fantasy value of any running back on the Patriots. But we have an interesting situation developing in New England. The addition of Joseph Addai has dropped Vereen’s ADP. It shocks me how people see Addai’s name or Dallas Clark and think they still have fantasy value. They don’t. Vereen, on the other hand, is a guy I’m going to be targeting in the later rounds. Like I said, Ridley may have the most value but on the Patriots that’s far from a lock. Vereen showed some giddy-up in limited action last season and I can guarantee he’ll have a role on the Pats offense as long as he’s healthy. The fact that Addai is now getting selected a round ahead of Vereen on average is laughable. Vereen should definitely be the second Patriots back off the board in fantasy drafts.

Green - If you’re looking for a late-round running back in a good situation, watch out for Green. I was really high on Green coming out of Hawaii and as I wrote last year landing with the Packers is a good fit for him. Green played in the Run n’ Shoot at Hawaii. In reality, the Packers offense isn’t that much different with all the passing they do. Green has a lot of versatility and he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Green may actually be one of the best receiving backs in the NFL if you go by what he did in college. I really like the way his skill set fits into what Green Bay does on offense.

The other reason Green is fast becoming one of my sleepers for this year is because of his situation. There really isn’t much standing in his way other than James Starks. Brandon Saine is roaming around too but Green has much more overall talent in my opinion. Let’s say Starks either under-performs or gets hurt. Assuming you’re like me and don’t think John Kuhn can be an every-down back then Green will have an opportunity to show what he can do if Starks doesn’t pan out. The more I look at the Packers backfield, the more I’m starting to like Green as a later round pick. I’ve been a fan of Starks since his days at Buffalo but he’s far from a sure thing as a fantasy running back. Green should be on your radar as either a late-round pick or possible waiver wire target down the road.

Overvalued

Thomas - I don’t see a lot of second-year players being overvalued. If I had to pick one it would be Thomas only because I called bust on him last year and he did nothing to make me change my opinion. One question I asked last summer when fantasy writers were promoting both Thomas and Delone Carter was, how many times have these writers actually seen the two play? I’m serious, for all the Carter love last year how many Syracuse games did those writers see? You need to be careful when you read people’s opinions. I will never claim to be right all the time but at least when I give out an opinion I’ve seen the guy play and my opinion is somewhat educated. And if I don’t know much about a player, I’ll tell you I don’t. I think that’s only fair to the readers. Trust me, the last time most fantasy writers watched a Syracuse game Donovan McNabb was the quarterback and for good reason. The Orange have been awful over the last decade.

The thing I pointed out about Thomas coming out of college is he’s way too tentative running between the tackles. I think that criticism was justified considering Thomas was one of the worst short yardage backs in the NFL last year. Remember people claiming Thomas was this great goal line back? Well, he scored zero rushing touchdowns as a rookie despite getting at least 11 carries (ones I saw personally) from inside the 5-yard line. I’m awful at math but even I know a 0% success rate isn’t very good.

I hate to keep piling on Miami running backs but Thomas and Lamar Miller are two guys I just didn’t like coming out of college. On the flip side, I love Reggie Bush this year. I say he has the best season of his career in 2012 now that Joe Philbin is the head coach. He better because according to me, Bush doesn’t have a lot of talent behind him. Taking Thomas in Round 9 is too high for me. In all honesty, I would rather have Miller. Thomas didn’t look like an NFL running back when I watched him at Kansas State and he didn’t look like one as a rookie. He’ll need to get a lot better fast to help fantasy owners this season and beyond.

Follow me on Twitter @ThePigskinGuy