I finish my updated position rankings with quarterbacks. There’s some turnover at the top, as a young gun has broken through in my rankings and ended the two-month stranglehold enjoyed by the Big 3. Overall the quarterback position seems to be settling in with most of the movement coming in the 15-30 range. Here now is a look at my Top 40 fantasy quarterback for 2012.
2012 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings
(Last updated on May 28)
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Matthew Stafford, Lions ↑
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Drew Brees, Saints ↓
5. Cam Newton, Panthers
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers
7. Mike Vick, Eagles ↑
8. Eli Manning, Giants
9. Peyton Manning, Broncos ↑
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys
11. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
12. Jay Cutler, Bears ↓
13. Matt Ryan, Falcons
14. Robert Griffin, Redskins
15. Carson Palmer, Raiders
16. Andy Dalton, Bengals
17. Matt Schaub, Texans
18. Andrew Luck, Colts ↑
19. Joe Flacco, Ravens
20. Alex Smith, 49ers ↑
21. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills ↓
22. Josh Freeman, Bucs ↓
23. Sam Bradford, Rams
24. Matt Flynn, Seahawks ↑
25. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals
26. Matt Cassel, Chiefs ↑
27. Jake Locker, Titans
28. Christian Ponder, Vikings
29. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans
30. Mark Sanchez, Jets
31. Brandon Weeden, Browns ↑
32. Joe Webb, Vikings ↑
33. Matt Moore, Dolphins
34. John Skelton, Cardinals
35. Chad Henne, Jaguars ↑
36. Tim Tebow, Jets
37. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins ↓
38. Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars ↓
39. Russell Wilson, Seahawks ↑
40. Colt McCoy, Browns
Going Up
Stafford - I did my statistical projections for quarterbacks and Stafford came in almost even with Aaron Rodgers. I have Stafford leading the NFL in passing yards this season and tossing 40+ touchdowns. Stafford is the only quarterback I have coming in right at 5,000 yards this year. I put a lot of time into player evaluations and that includes going back over my notes from last season. I take notes every week and leave them for the following year to make sure I’m not overlooking anything. This is my main argument for Antonio Brown. I constantly noted last year how Brown was emerging into one of the best overall receivers in the NFL. That’s why I have him ranked so high. Nothing has changed over the summer for me to think differently of Brown.
For all my Cam Newton love, it was actually Stafford I was most impressed with by the end of last season. Stafford had a great year overall but it was the final five games of 2011 where he really took that next step in my opinion. Now you look at the weapons Stafford has with Megatron, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Brandon Pettigrew and Ryan Broyles. I’ll put that group of targets up against virtually any team in the NFL.
Last year Stafford passed for over 5,000 yards and was fantasy football’s fourth leading scorer in most formats behind only the Big 3 quarterbacks. This season I believe Stafford will challenge Rodgers to be the top overall scorer. I’ve correctly predicted the passing yardage leader three seasons in a row now. I think when you look at all the variables involved, Stafford will make it four straight. Right now Stafford is going on average at the end of Round 3 as the 34th player off the board. Based on my rankings, Stafford is a heck of a pick when you consider where the other top quarterbacks are being selected.
I certainly can’t complain if you draft Rodgers, Cam, Tom Brady or Drew Brees but for money Stafford going 28 picks after Rodgers is tremendous value. If you want to select an elite quarterback I would strongly suggest looking at Stafford. In many leagues you can grab players at other positions with your first two picks and then come back with Stafford in the third round. Right now, I think that may be the best way to approach this year’s draft.
Flynn -I’m not doubting that Pete Carroll is serious about holding an open quarterback competition but at the end of the day it’s just something for reporters to write about over the next couple of months. Flynn is going to win that job and he should emerge as a nice fantasy sleeper. We don’t have a lot to go on with Flynn but he was coached in one of the NFL’s best offensive systems with the Packers and Seattle does have some talent at the skill positions. I like Flynn to be a solid QB2 this season with upside.
Weeden - I was high on Weeden coming into the draft and while I don’t think he has a ton of fantasy value in re-draft leagues, I’m really starting to like him in dynasty league formats. The more I go back and watch Weeden’s college games the more I think he has all the tools to be a successful NFL quarterback. Again, as I wrote last month, the only real negative I see with Weeden is at times he tends to struggle with accuracy early in games. I don’t know if he’s too pumped up (a problem Brett Favre had early in his career) or what but if the Browns coaching staff can fix that problem, Weeden doesn’t have many holes in his game. Cleveland still needs to surround Weeden with a few more weapons but he’s a guy that could be high on the fantasy radar in 2013.
Hasselbeck - A couple of the trusted Tennessee beat writers believe Hasselbeck will begin the year as the Titans starter. It won’t surprise me considering the Titans feel they can win now and may want to go with the veteran signal caller off the bat. Jake Locker would provide much for value for fantasy owners if he wins the job but Hasselbeck is a decent backup that has a lot of weapons at his disposal. Either way, Locker will likely be starting at some point in 2012, so he remains the higher ranked player on my board.
Coming Down
Cutler - I’m still really high on Cutler but he’s currently the 15th quarterback being taken on average in fantasy drafts. That means you can wait until roughly Round 10 to snag him as either a starter or a valuable backup. I feel Cutler is one of the most undervalued players so far in early drafts, so he’s not really going down. You can just wait and get him later than you can a Tony Romo or Peyton Manning.
Freeman - Since the day Greg Schiano was hired I told people to get ready to see a lot of running in Tampa Bay. The fact that the Bucs drafted Doug Martin in Round 1 obviously didn’t do much to change my thinking. I believe Schiano is going to turn Josh Freeman into more of a game manager. I see Freeman using a lot of play-action to take shots down the field but the days of him throwing the ball 40 times a game are over for the most part. This is an important year for Freeman. I tabbed him as one of the most overrated players to ever get drafted in Round 1. He proved me wrong as a rookie but regressed in 2011. My guess is the real Freeman is somewhere in between.
Gabbert - Right now I’m predicting Chad Henne to win the starting quarterback job in Jacksonville. Is that enough? I mean do I really need another reason besides that to have a quarterback coming down?
Tannehill - I don’t believe Tannehill is ready to start in the NFL. I think it’s best we don’t see him under center until around Week 8 if the Dolphins are falling out of playoff contention. There’s already some talk of Tannehill starting Week 1. I may be wrong but that would be a disaster for him. Hopefully for Tannehill, the Dolphins won’t rush the rookie into action and give him more time to develop.
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love your stuff TC! i’m tweaking my draft sheet based on your advice. keep it up!!
Thanks a lot. Hopefully you won’t be yelling at me come October. Ah, I’m right 50% of the time. You should hit on at least a couple.
Are you concerned with Stafford’s injury history? I agree he will have a big year if he stays healthy.
Not really Mason. It’s hard to predict those things. I will say he’s getting the ball out much quicker now than he was earlier in his career, so hopefully that will help. Look at this way; Darren McFadden is getting drafted in the Top 15. Who is more likely to get hurt?
On top of everything obvious Stafford’s got going for him, he also plays seven of his final eight indoors. To get 5K passing yards in 3 would be robbery. He stood up all last year, i’d be more concerned if he was a runner like Vick, but 54 total rushing yards for him says otherwise, ha. His shoulders gotta be healed by now.
Nice add Nerd about the indoor games. I saw it and totally forgot to mention it. That is a huge plus. Also, like you said, we don’t have to worry about Stafford running much. Anyone can get hurt but a pure pocket passer like Stafford who gets the ball out quick has a better chance to stay healthy if you play the odds. Thanks again for adding that nugget about the indoor games.
Some really solid points about Stafford. He’s a great value if you can get him in round 3. At age 24, with only 1 full NFL season, why shouldn’t he continue to improve and build on his #’s? If anything, he should have just as safe a floor as Rodgers, Brady & Brees. He’s really a guy I will have to think about targeting now. Grabbing him in Rd 3 and taking someone like Flynn in one of the last rounds makes a lot of sense. Great insight, that’s why I come to this site.
Thanks JT. When comparing projections to ADP I just don’t see a lot of difference between Rodgers and Stafford. Rodgers is the safer choice but if both guys stay healthy I see them putting up similar numbers this year.
I’m still higher on Matt Ryan than you are and see him being comfortably in my top 10 QB. Take a look again at his game logs after the ATL bye week last year. The NYG playoff game was a nightmare but, looking past that disaster, he appears to have made the jump during the 2nd half of last season. He has some great offensive weapons that are not too far off from Stafford’s (Calvin is clearly #1 but Roddy and Julio are clear #’s 2 & 3 if you combine both teams receivers). At this point, I’d take him over both Mannings, Romo, Big Ben, and Cutler. Plus, like nerd pointed out with Stafford, 7 of the last 9 ATL games are indoors, with the other 2 road games at TB & CAR.
I admit I’m starting to like Ryan a little more. I just can’t put him ahead of those other guys at this point but he’s right in that Big Ben/Cutler/Romo grouping for sure. I would rather have the Mannings though. Eli is just reaching the prime of his career and if Peyton stays healthy I think he has two more big years left in that arm. If you wait on a QB though, Ryan will certainly outproduce his draft position. You make a lot of good points about him. For some reason he’s one of those guys I’m slow to put my weight behind. I don’t really know why to be honest with you.
My drafting strategy this year (unless I get an awful position and all studs are gone) had been planned to go RB in the first two rounds. If I’m super lucky CJ and Richardson would be the jackpot for me. I kept wondering where to go in round 3, was going to opt for a WR in 3 (Antonio Brown) and 4, take Hernandez in 5 if he was still there and pick up a complimentary QB around round 7 (Big Ben if for some reason he was there or Cutler who I expect to have a solid but not spectacular year) but now I’m seriously thinking of hitting Stafford in 3 if he’s there and nab Brown in 4 if still possible.
I keep thinking and hoping that next will be Kolb’s real season. No more injuries, no excuses, two solid WRs opening the whole field for him and he’ll go from an ok backup to at least a top 10. Of course, that revolving door they call an O-line might prevent that.
Depending on where I draft and whether or not Stafford moves up over the summer I will look into the same strategy. Then again, it all comes down to your particular league. It only takes one person to select Stafford in Round 2. Overall though, if you can get two players and Stafford, that’s a hell of a start.
I had Ryan last year and he was a big letdown. Now granted for what I paid for him in my draft which was $.25 he performed very well for the price. But with all the hype around him last year he should have been a monumental steal. Instead my team played less then stellar for the first few weeks. Julio Jones being in and out was not a help either. So coming into this year I’d still have reservations about him playing under Mike Smith and his dumb playing calling.
Assuming Jones and White enable him to have the year alot thought he would last year then he should exceed his numbers from last year. Especially if Turner continues his downward trend.