Now that I’m finished with my rankings for a while I thought I would delve into some ADP stuff and look at players I feel are being undervalued and overvalued. The value of a particular player can mean different things to different people. I may think there ‘s a lot of value in Philip Rivers being drafted in Round 7, while another person views Rivers in decline and doesn’t want anything to do with him. Based on my rankings and views of players, here are some guys I feel are being undervalued based on their current ADP in early mock drafts. Tomorrow I’ll look at the overvalued players.
Based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford, Lions
ADP: Round 3 (34)
I recently moved Stafford to No. 2 in my quarterback rankings, so I obviously like him at the end of the third round. If you look at mock drafts and where some of the other elite fantasy quarterbacks are going, Stafford is a heck of a pick at 34. Aaron Rodgers (6), Tom Brady (14), Drew Brees (20) and Cam Newton (26) are all going quite a bit higher than Stafford right now. In my breakdown of Stafford in my rankings section I forgot to mention he plays six of his final seven games indoors. My buddy Nerd added that nugget in the comments section. Now think if Stafford stays healthy with all of those weapons at his disposal. He gets to close out the season with five home games and one of the Lions two road trips is at Arizona. Green Bay is the only potential bad weather spot for the Lions after early November. Sign me up.
Some people are worried about Stafford getting hurt and I understand the concern but he’s getting the ball out much quicker now than he did a couple of years ago and those things are tough to predict. No matter how you slice it, getting a quarterback entering his prime who tossed for over 5,000 yards last year with the 34th pick is a pretty good deal.
Philip Rivers, Chargers
ADP: Round 7 (78)
Boy, if you wait on a quarterback and land Rivers in Round 7 things will have really worked out for you. I should say though that in the mock drafts I’ve participated in Rivers hasn’t lasted until the seventh round. He’s been going more in the fifth round area. Some fantasy owners are jumping off Rivers too quickly because they still have a sour taste in their mouths from last year. While it’s true he had a down 2011 season, Rivers has been money for most of his career. I know the Chargers say nothing was wrong with Rivers last year but he just didn’t look right to me. I have to believe Rivers’ 2011 season was an exception and not the norm. I see him rebounding in a big way this season.
Running Backs
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
ADP: Round 8 (90)
Stewart is getting selected two rounds and 20 picks after DeAngelo Williams for some God unknown reason. Is it three years ago or something? I know the Panthers backfield is muddled but Stewart is the better option in PPR leagues when you factor in receptions, even with the addition of Mike Tolbert. I’ll probably stay away from this mess altogether but I would much rather grab Stewart in Round 8 instead of Williams in Round 6. Stewart has the talent to be a fantasy stud, he’s just in a bad situation right now.
Kendall Hunter, 49ers
ADP: Round 13 (153)
If you want a perfect example of how rookies are overvalued look no further than Hunter and LaMichael James. I love James for the long-term but it’s absurd to me that he’s getting drafted before Hunter in early mocks. Hunter showed a lot of potential as a rookie and he’s much further along in terms of knowing the 49ers offense. James is going to be used a lot on special teams and as an instant offense kind of back but Hunter will see more touches overall. If something were to happen to Frank Gore it would be Hunter, not James, who would see the bulk of the carries. Brandon Jacobs will have a role as well but his days of being a lead back in the NFL are long over.
So this is a case where a big-name rookie is actually helping fantasy owners because the addition of James has shied people away from Hunter. I think that’s a mistake. As much as I like James in a dynasty league format, I’ll be more than happy to grab Hunter in Round 13 this season.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Marshall, Bears
ADP: Round 3 (31)
I have Marshall as my third ranked fantasy receiver. I believe he should be going in Round 2, roughly 10-15 spots higher than his current ADP. It’s not the end of the world but if you draft non-receivers with your first two picks and end up with Marshall in Round 3, that’s like having three selections in the Top 20 according to my rankings.
Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
ADP: Round 6 (68)
For some reason the Eagles No. 1 receiver (Maclin) is going seven picks later than the Eagles No. 2 receiver (DeSean Jackson). Does that make any sense? Maclin outproduced Jackson in 2010 and he did so again last year, despite playing in two fewer games. In fact, Maclin was on pace to catch 85 balls last season if he hadn’t missed three games in November. Throw in the lockout and the fact that Maclin missed what little training camp there was due to his “mysterious illness” and the only thing mysterious to me is why Jackson is getting drafted before him.
In all seriousness, how many years in a row does Maclin need to put up better numbers before people realize he’s the Eagles best fantasy receiver? I mean it’s all there in black and white. It’s not even my opinion, it’s a documented fact. Maclin is an easy Top 20 fantasy receiver and he may even crack the Top 10. Jackson will not and I’ll bet my life on it.
Antonio Brown, Steelers
ADP: Round 6 (74)
I’ve made it no secret that I like Brown over Mike Wallace this year. I believe Brown is emerging as one of the NFL’s top receivers. I have Brown ranked as my No. 16 fantasy receiver and Wallace at 19. Now let’s say you don’t agree with me and think Wallace is the better fantasy receiver. That’s fine, I know I’m in the minority. Even if you prefer Wallace over Brown there’s no way he should be going off the board 33 picks sooner on average. In no scoring system does Wallace finish 33 spots higher than Brown. I don’t care if you like Brown or not, that’s just insane.
So even if you aren’t as high on Brown as I am, there’s a lot of value with him going at the end of Round 6. I actually think Brown and Wallace will put up pretty similar fantasy numbers in 2012, so the fact that one receiver is going 33 spots over the other is mind-boggling to me. I keep saying the people who don’t believe in Brown will by the end of September but you don’t even have to believe in him that much to know a good value pick when you see one.
Eric Decker, Broncos
ADP: Round 7 (75)
I’ve already written quite a bit on Decker. I have him ranked as the 13th best fantasy receiver in PPR leagues this year and if Peyton Manning plays 16 games, that’s probably still too low. I like both Decker and Demaryius Thomas but in a PPR format I prefer Decker because he’ll be asked to run more short routes in Denver’s offense. I think Decker is going to catch 90 balls this year, so getting him in Round 7 is obviously a steal in my book. Come December we’re all going to have a good laugh about Decker being drafted in the seventh round. Book it.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
ADP: Round 11 (130)
This is pretty good value for a guy who closed 2011 strong and appears to be on the verge of a career year. Heyward-Bey did have some trouble with the law this offseason but I don’t see it being anything that will hinder his performance on the field. I’m a big Denarius Moore guy but he’s still a year away from being a huge fantasy star. Moore will be good this season but he’s being a little overvalued right now. Moore is currently getting drafted 37 spots higher than Heyward-Bey on average. Does that make sense to anyone? It’s similar to the Wallace/Brown insanity. I would rather have Moore over the long-term but for this season I’ll take the value with Heyward-Bey in Round 11. He’s not a bad option as your fourth or fifth fantasy receiver.
Greg Little, Browns
ADP: Round 11 (136)
I’m a little confused by this one. Little is basically being drafted in the same area he was last year as an unproven rookie. Little had his ups and downs as a rookie but in my opinion he showed more good than bad. I’ll say it again; I saw one NFL-caliber receiver on the Browns last year and it was Little. The guy caught 61 passes in his first season on a bad offense. Just think if Little had caught half the balls he dropped. That total would have exceeded 70. Plus, can the Browns passing game really get any worse than it was last season? I say no if only because defenses have to focus on Trent Richardson instead of Chris Ogbonnaya. I don’t want to get too high on a Cleveland receiver but I could see myself taking Little 2-3 rounds higher than his current ADP. I currently have him ranked as my 35th best fantasy receiver.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
ADP: Round 12 (140)
For years Crabtree has been overvalued. Now after he ends the 2011 season on a high note and Crabtree looks like he’s finally going to have a breakout season, he’s being undervalued. Heyward-Bey and Crabtree have had similar careers since being selected in the draft together three years ago. That trend could continue in 2012. I’m taking a wait and see approach with Randy Moss but even if he looks good, I view Crabtree as the 49ers receiver with the most fantasy value. Let me put it this way; you can get Crabtree to be your fifth fantasy receiver. Is that something you might be interested in? If not, it should be.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
ADP: Round 14 (186)
Baldwin caught 51 balls for 788 yards and 4 scores last year. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider who was throwing to Baldwin. Now imagine if Matt Flynn turns into a solid quarterback. Even if he isn’t a star, Flynn would have to be pretty bad to not be an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson. Getting selected in Round 14 means Baldwin isn’t even being drafted in some leagues. If you’re looking for a late-round receiver to stash on your bench, Baldwin is an intriguing option. Flynn is the key but if he turns out to be the real deal, the Seahawks offense will offer much more fantasy value this season than people are expecting.
Tight Ends
Aaron Hernandez, TE Patriots
ADP: Round 5 (55)
The more I think about the tight end position the more I think the best value in terms of grabbing an elite talent is selecting Hernandez in Round 5. I’m not suggesting for a second that Rob Gronkowski won’t put up big numbers but Bill Belichick is a proactive coach. He knows defenses are going to do whatever they can to try and stop Gronkowski this year and that should open things up even more for Hernandez. The bottom line in my book is the Patriots have two Top 5 fantasy tight ends, so if you don’t want to use a high pick on Gronk, getting Hernandez a few rounds later isn’t a bad consolation prize.
Jermaine Gresham, TE Bengals
ADP: Round 12 (138)
I guess people aren’t buying into Gresham but at worst you get a low-end starting fantasy tight end in Round 12. I’ve been all in on Gresham since he was at Oklahoma. The Bengals used him more as a blocker earlier in his career but last season Gresham started to emerge as a receiver. I think 2012 is his breakout year. Gresham should be a Top 10 fantasy tight end this season and that’s on the low end in my opinion. Just keep in mind, this is the same area where Hernandez was being drafted last year.
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The one thing I can’t agree with you more is the Maclin/Jackson debate. Sure Jackson has big play ability but thats assuming he catchs the ball. Maclin has better hands and runs better routes. Now the one thing that will make these two very interesting is Jackson’s new contract. Will that steer the ball in his direction more or will the comfort of the new cash take his head out of the game even more. As for Maclin he won’t have to fight through Lymphoma this season. Maclin is reported to be much stronger then he was last year. So a stronger, healthier Maclin means to me he will hold onto that no1 spot. I again think Maclin will prove to be the better WR in all formats this year.
I don’t understand why everyone doesn’t see what we’re seeing. Maybe if Maclin outperforms Jackson for three more years he’ll finally get ranked ahead of him.
In 3 more years Maclin might not even be an Eagle. This is the last year on his contract right? I’d bet if he has a better 2012 then 2011 he’ll be gone.
I don’t know whether to trust Crabtree this year or not. He did end last year on a high note but that was after I had to cut him from my fantasy team for being insanely underperforming. I see him as waiver wire bye week fodder but I trust thepigskinguy if he thinks there’s a chance Crabtree can produce. He might not see the TDs anymore because Moss is more likely to make those catches in my opinion, but if he nets yards that’s good enough.
I think there’s no debate between Jackson and Maclin. Maclin is an actual receiver who makes tough catches, makes defenders miss tackles and gains tough yards and tough TDs. Jackson is an amazing and spectacular WR if you are playing Madden, because his stats are high, but otherwise he’s a mediocre one trick pony.
I have expressed my love for Brown before and people picking him past RD 4 makes no sense, he’s a year away from being picked in the top 20.
I sincerely hope Dalton doesn’t get a case of the Bardfords because I am looking at Simpson and Gresham as complementary pieces for my team and to Green as my WR starter.
I think when you look at Crabtree it’s about value. If I had to take him in Round 8 I would have little interest but in Round 11 or 12 I think he’s worth a shot. I don’t ever see him being a stud but I like him as a solid spot starter this year. People will be big Brown believers by the time October rolls around.
The most draft value is clearly at WR, which is all the more reason to wait and strongly consider going RB & QB early or, if you’re in an auction league, be prepared to spend big buck for the studs at RB. At this point, it’s almost a certainty that you can get Maclin, Decker, and Antonio Brown combined for less than Calvin in auction and you can probably get all 3 at WR for less than the cost of Fitz and Andre as well. I will gladly overpay for the top RB if this is still the case in late August.
I agree. I actually like the receivers you can get in Rounds 3-7 more than some of the top guys. I’ll be interested to see how my drafts go this year. I think more than ever you can employ many different strategies and come away with a great fantasy team either way.
Great value with Gresham in rd 12. If I can get him in rd 10 or later than I’m most likely going to wait on TE as well. He fits the 3rd year break-out receiver candidate profile almost too well. It obviously doesn’t always work out this way but everything about this guy’s talent and situation leads me to believe there will be a big break-out this year.
I’m probably more surprised about Gresham than any other player. I really thought more people would be on him this year. Like you said though, it suits people like us just fine. I’m targeting Round 10 too. I think Gresham will end up being one of the best picks of the entire 2012 draft when it’s all said and done.
I see where some of these guys are going and i think you must be mock drafting with idiots. I mean theres a woman in my league, and even she wouldn’t let those names pass. Funny story about her,.. she drafted Murray in 14 last yr, then held him till he became the starter. Hell of a thing, but not even that woman’s intuition could keep her from finishing last place, hahaa.
I need to hear people saying “Rivers is baaack” preseason, weird how he dropped off like that,.. i’m not touching a CAR RB,.. and i hate D Jackson so much! I knew better then to draft him high last year, but someone did round 2 pick 10. If i hadn’t lost my first two picks, Charles and Fadden to injury, i might have beaten him in the playoffs. Actually if Austin would have caught that 3rd down flip from Romo week 14 i would’ve won too! So funny how the ball bounces in the end.
Nerd, this isn’t drafts I’ve been in. My ADP stuff comes from the major sites that provide that info. Places like Fantasy Football Calculator, My Fantasy League and Football Guys. It’s basically the average of places like that. I haven’t been in any of these drafts personally.
Eric Decker, Broncos
ADP: Round 7 (75)
OVERVALUED
Antonio Brown will have a better year then you think. By the time 2012 ends he will be the Pitt no1 WR. The whole Wallace odyssey will probably start Brown as the no1 whether Wallace signs or not. I like most people think Wallace will be in the lineup in week 1. But in what capacity is the question. Until he signs that question will remain up in the air. So until then consider Brown the no1. Pittsburgh is going to throw the ball. Maybe not as much as last year but to say that the % of pass plays will be over 55% is very likely. brown proved to e very reliable in 2011. Some of that may have been because Wallace was being 2x teamed more in second half. But whatever the reason his numbers proved he can be very effective in FF. And a very good no2 in your lineup.
I have no idea why Brown is going so low. No idea at all. He should be going in Round 4. The fact that he’s going after DeSean Jackson is laughable.