ADP Breakdown: Overvalued Players

Posted: May 31, 2012 in Fantasy, Fantasy Football Draft, NFL
Tags: , , ,


After looking at undervalued players based on early Average Draft Position (ADP), I now look at some guys I feel are being overvalued. Remember, just because I think someone is being overvalued it doesn’t mean I don’t like that player. It simply means I feel he’s being drafted too high for one reason or another. I’m a stickler when it comes to value. In that aspect I believe fantasy drafts are similar to the NFL Draft. So here are some players I see being overvalued as we head into June.

Based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception

Running Backs

Fred Jackson, Bills
ADP: Round 2 (23)
I still like Jackson for the upcoming season but I liked him a lot more when he was going in the later portions of Round 3. Now that Jackson is moving up boards and getting drafted in the second round, I’ll probably pass on him.. C.J. Spiller is on the verge of being a special player but I think Jackson holds him off for one more year in Buffalo. Still, there’s no denying Spiller’s role in the offense is going to increase after his strong finish to 2011, so that will eat into Jackson’s touches. I’m a big Jackson fan overall but with him returning from a knee injury and Spiller coming on strong, I can’t see myself taking Jackson in the Top 25.

Michael Turner, Falcons
ADP: Round 3 (29)
It doesn’t surprise me that Turner is going in the Top 30 picks but it doesn’t mean I have to like it. Turner still has fantasy value but if you watched him last year you saw a player on the decline. In my opinion Turner is going roughly 15 picks too high. I would consider him in Round 5 but in the third round there are better options still on the board for me to select a back on the downside of his career.

Let’s compare Turner to a running back that’s actually being drafted in the fifth round; Shonn Greene. In a PPR format, I would say the two are pretty close in terms of value, yet Turner has an ADP of 29 and Greene of 56. Last season Turner ran for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. He caught 17 passes. In comparison, Greene ran for 1,054 yards and 6 touchdowns. He caught 30 passes. Greene is also four years younger. So while I’m not a huge Greene fan, when you look at value, I would rather take Greene 27 picks later and select a receiver like Brandon Marshall or A.J. Green in Round 3. Both of those guys have virtually the same ADP as Turner.

If I could grab Turner in Round 5 I would but I have little interest in selecting a 30-year old bruiser who doesn’t catch any passes in the Top 30 of a PPR league.

Doug Martin, Bucs
ADP: Round 3 (36)
I understand Martin is being tabbed as the Bucs starter but LeGarrette Blount didn’t die. He’s still around to get carries, especially later on in games when backs rack up those valuable garbage fantasy points. I’ve said in the past that I believe Blount is best suited for the Marion Barber-like closer role. Then Greg Schiano came out last week and indicated that’s what he envisions for the big back. So let’s say Blount takes over that role and is on the field in the fourth quarter when the Bucs have a lead. That’s a decent amount of potential fantasy points Martin owners will miss out on throughout the course of a season.

Let me give you a few names of players Martin is currently being drafted over on average: Julio Jones, Mike Wallace, Jordy Nelson, Reggie Bush, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Percy Harvin, Mike Vick, Dez Bryant and Aaron Hernandez. You ever hear of any of them? I mean look at that list. If you draft Martin over those guys you’re expecting him to not put up just decent numbers as a rookie, you’re expecting him to be a stud from day 1. And I don’t like the “what if you need a running back in Round 3″ argument. That’s not how I draft. I’m not going to reach for a rookie running back in Round 3 when I can get a monster like Julio Jones instead. I’ll just wait another round and take Reggie Bush or Roy Helu. I would be perfectly happy with that scenario.

Again, I like Martin but even if you’re down on Blount, he’s still going to have a role in Tampa Bay’s offense. If you look at Martin with realistic expectations, some are expecting too much too soon in my opinion.

Jahvid Best, Lions
ADP: Round 6  62)
I know Best is productive in PPR leagues when healthy but we’re talking about a guy who’s one hit away from retiring. Remember, he’s not one hit away from missing a couple of games. Best is one more serious concussion away from never playing football again. That’s too much risk for me to take him in Round 6 ahead of guys like Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller, James Starks, Peyton Hillis, and Jonathan Stewart. I would rather have all of those running backs over Best.

I’m a Best fan. I’ve actually had Best on my fantasy team the last couple of years an in PPR leagues he produces. However, in Round 6 I’m still drafting guys I view as studs. I don’t view Round 6 any different than I do Round 2 to be honest. Jeremy Maclin is a stud in my book and he has the same ADP as Best. The sixth round is just way too early for me to pass up a guy like Maclin for a player with so many red flags.

Also, I’m very high on Ryan Broyles. It’s funny because someone in the Lions organization said recently they see some Wes Welker in Broyles. I’ve been saying that for months now. Too many people are busy comparing white stiffs like Danny Coale to Welker but if you look at receivers based on what they do and not skin color, Broyles is the closest thing you’ll find to another Welker. Broyles was made to play in the slot and he’s going to eat up receptions in that offense. Reports say Broyles will be fully recovered from his knee injury by Week 1. In my opinion the presence of Broyles hurts Best’s value a little because the Lions use short throws to Best to make up for a lack of a running game. I see Broyles stealing some of those receptions. I’ll go as far as to say if Broyles is healthy he’ll finish third on the Lions in catches this year behind Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew.

When you combine Best’s injury history with the addition of Broyles, I’m not taking him in Round 6. And I didn’t even talk about Mikel Leshoure getting the goal line carries. Best is a good player on a great offense but there’s just too many question marks for me.

Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
ADP: Round 9 (106)

I’ve never been very high on Thomas. The thing I pointed out about Thomas coming out of college is he’s way too tentative running between the tackles. I think that criticism was justified considering Thomas was one of the worst short yardage backs in the NFL last year. Remember people claiming Thomas was this great goal line back? Well he scored zero rushing touchdowns as a rookie despite getting at least 11 carries (ones I saw personally) from inside the 5-yard line. I’m awful at math but even I know a 0% success rate isn’t very good.

On the flip side, I love Reggie Bush this year. I say he has the best season of his career in 2012 now that Joe Philbin is the head coach. Thomas didn’t look like an NFL running back when I watched him at Kansas State and he didn’t look like one as a rookie. He’ll need to get a lot better fast to help fantasy owners this season and beyond.

Joseph Addai, Patriots
ADP: Round 12 (138)
The fact that Addai is being drafted means he’s overvalued to me. Addai over Shane Vereen in early mocks? No way. People do realize it’s 2012, right? I thought Addai was average coming out of LSU. In the NFL I thought he was a slightly above average running back who benefited from playing in the perfect offense. Now he’s below average, always injured, old and fourth on the depth chart. No thanks.

Wide Receivers

Greg Jennings, Packers
ADP: Round 3 (28)
I’m splitting hairs a little with Jennings but I do think he’s a little overvalued heading into 2012. I have Jennings ranked lower than most (12) and that still may be a little high. Jennings is a good fantasy receiver but I think we’re ranking him a little high based on his name and what he did three years ago. Still, it’s hard to drop a receiver too far that’s scored 21 times over the last two years and has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him but there are other receivers going later I prefer to Jennings this season. Again, I’m not going to laugh at anyone who selects Jennings in the Top 30. I just personally see him as being a little overvalued compared to some other receivers who have the same ADP or lower.

Denarius Moore, Raiders
ADP: Round 8 (91)
I think people are getting on Moore a year too early. I believe his numbers will go up but I see 2013 being his breakout season. In my opinion Moore will have some big games against weaker secondaries but if you’re looking for him to come in and be a consistent contributor for your fantasy team, it may be a year too early for those expectations. I’m all in on Moore. The only thing is I’m all in on him for 2013. Right now there are some receivers being selected after Moore that I have ranked higher. That’s why he’s a little overvalued from my perspective. I have Moore going in Round 10, so his ADP is a couple of rounds too early for me.

Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
ADP: Round 8 (93)
I like Blackmon but when when I’m rooting for Chad Henne to win the starting quarterback job for a team, that’s a big problem. Jacksonville’s offense just looks like absolute trash on paper. Henne would have a hard time winning the No. 2 job on most teams, yet he could begin the season as the Jaguars starting quarterback. That really says a lot. Matt Barkley could be on his way in 2013 to help Blackmon but it’s hard to imagine a rookie receiver having a ton of fantasy success with guys like Henne and Blaine Gabbert throwing him the ball.

I see 55-60 receptions for Blackmon this season, which shows just how talented he is given Jacksonville’s miserable quarterback situation. Right now people are drafting Blackmon based on talent and not situation. As I tell people all the time when it comes to rookies, situation is just as important as talent, if not more so. I like Blackmon as a player but I’m going to take a pass on him this season.

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
ADP: Round 13 (156)
Lewis is being drafted in Round 13. I guess my question is; why? I’m serious, why? I have Lewis ranked as the 29th best fantasy tight end and even if that’s a little low, he still has no business being drafted. I’m sorry but I have no interest in the inconsistent tight end on what very well could be the worst passing offense in the NFL. No interest at all.

Follow me on Twitter @ThePigskinGuy

  1. #nerd says:

    I’m a little torn on the Fred Jackson CJ Spiller situation in Buffalo. I remember Spiller miserably trying to get going the first 3/4 of the season while Jackson surprised everyone with his production, then CJ heats up the last 4 of 5 games, when Fred’s gone. Why’d that happen? Did he just need those added 12-14 touches to get going? Why couldn’t he do some of that earlier on less carries? Did they change the offense for him when it was all his show? I worry if Fred’s coming back to do his thing, Spiller might go back to the level of production he had most of last season.

    • Well Nerd, I’ve been wrong every step of the way with the Bills running backs. So my advice would be to take what I say and do the exact opposite. I do like Jackson but I probably wouldn’t take him in the first two rounds. So that means you should take him in the first rounds.

  2. Manuel says:

    Great analysis as usual. I’d like it if you put an addition to the player. Currently is their name, their ADP and I’d like if you put where you think they have value (in case we find ourselves drafting with people who follow your advice and therefore won’t take Michael Turner in RD3, but to know when it’d be a good spot to get him).
    And the “Legarrete Blount didn’t die” line always makes me laugh because it’s funny, people talk about as if he got fired off the team or broke both his legs, last news I read he was still in the team and Schiano didn’t say he’d bench him a whole year.

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