The Pigskin Guy

Source: csmonitor.com

It’s back. The most successful, talked about, entertaining column in fantasy sports over the last 12 years. Actually, it’s none of those things but The Fire Sale has returned for its 13 season and generated quite a following since I came up with the idea one day in my living room.

The Fire Sale has been featured on SI.com the last two years and you’ll be able to catch it here every Tuesday during the NFL season. That’s assuming my health doesn’t continue to get worse and I’m still alive come September. If not, you won’t have The Fire Sale but the world will be a better place, so it all evens out in the end.

The Fire Sale normally doesn’t start until August but I thought I would start bringing the pain a little early this season, so here we go with an abbreviated version. Now, on with The Fire Sale…

Going Up

Ryan Williams, RB Cardinals - And so it begins. Beanie Wells went from a routine knee scope to beginning training camp on the active/PUP list. That’s so Beanie. In other words, if you think Wells is going to play more than 10 games you’re smoking the kind of good weed my roommate used to keep in our freezer. You may as well stick a fork in Beanie because the writing is on the wall. This knee injury will have him in and out of the lineup all season. Mr. Game-Time Decision is back in full force ladies and gentlemen.

The other thing that will be keeping Beanie on the bench is Williams. Last year I had Williams ranked as a Top 15 talent coming into the draft and right there with Mark Ingram as my top running back in the class. Williams is actually one of my favorite college players of all-time. I love his running style and versatility. If he can stay healthy I think Williams is going to have a big season.

Here’s the thing: The Cardinals desperately want to run the football to take pressure off their inconsistent offensive line. Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald but its line and quarterback situation isn’t built to throw the ball 40 times a game. In my opinion the coaching staff is losing confidence in Beanie and his ability to stay healthy. I mean, can you blame them? Williams will get plenty of opportunities to show what he can do early on in the season and that’s all he’ll need to become the main man in Arizona’s backfield.

Now that I know Wells is already starting training camp behind the 8-ball my confidence in predicting a big season from Williams is growing. I’m calling for 1,100 yards and 10 scores. I’ll draft Williams in Round 7 and laugh all the way to my league title. Mark it down. And while you’re marking things down, apparently I’ll be drafting Williams, Eric Decker and Ronnie Hillman all in the seventh round this year.

Robert Turbin, RB Seahawks - I’m 39 and married with a young son so what I’m about to say I’m not proud of. Back when I was young and stupid I used to drink and drive from time-to-time. I was actually kind of good at it, so I was the one who would drive home from the bars. Again, I’m not proud of it now but when you’re 22 you think nothing bad will ever happen to you.

Never when I stupidly got behind the wheel after drinking did I swerve in and out of traffic and almost hit other cars. If anything, you try even harder to drive safely so you don’t get pulled over. So my question is what the hell was Marshawn Lynch doing? Does he know he plays in the NFL? Does he really need me to tell him that if he’s going to be an idiot and drive drunk that he probably shouldn’t try and run other people off the road like he’s in a demolition derby at the county fair?

You know, I’ve heard Lynch was an idiot ever since he came into the NFL and this latest incident did little to change that label. I’ve written some about Turbin already and he’s a guy who’s pretty talented overall. Turbin is a tough inside runner and he actually reminds me of Lynch…on the field. Let’s hope that doesn’t carry over off the field. I personally like Turbin more in a backup role as a rookie in Seattle’s power running game but there’s a chance he could see an increased workload early depending on what happens to Lynch.

Turbin is built like a tank. I don’t know if you’ve ever seen the arms on this guy but think Hulk Hogan, only bigger. Turbin is an absolute beast but don’t forget Michael Smith also saw time in Utah State’s backfield last season. If Lynch misses a couple of games, Leon Washington will also be in the mix for touches because while Turbin has potential, I don’t think he’s quite ready to be an every-down back in the NFL yet. Then again, there’s only like five of those left in the league at this point, so I guess that sentence doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

Turbin is an interesting player who’s obviously moving up draft boards thanks to Lynch’s latest display of buffoonery. Just don’t go overboard trying to get him on your roster because Lynch likely won’t face a long-term suspension.

Kellen Davis, TE Bears - Those of you that follow me know that I have no interest in blowing smoke up your backside. I don’t tell you I have sources I don’t have or inside info that doesn’t exist. I mean, who am I really lying to in that case besides myself?

I do have one good NFL contact; the guy who lent me those draft prospect videos this year. So when he found out I wasn’t feeling well he got in touch with me. After wishing me well he said, “There’s a player I want you to promote for fantasy. Kellen Davis. I’ve heard around Chicago that he’ll have a big role in the offense this year. It will make you look like you know what you’re talking about for a change.”

Fine by me. I prefer to look like I know what I’m talking about every know and then. I’ll give my source his due once and then if Davis blows up not mention this conversation ever again and take all the credit myself. I’m good with that. I’m not one to turn my back on a tip from a guy who is way more important than I am, so I looked further into Davis after our conversation.

New offensive coordinator Mike Tice will certainly use the tight end more than Mike Martz, who believes the tight end is ineligible to go out for passes. Now Davis only has 28 career receptions in three seasons but my source insists the Bears coaching staff believes he’s a much better receiver than his numbers suggest. They also believe Davis’ 6-7, 267-pound frame can create mismatches in the red zone and they want to exploit that this year.

Now should you run out and draft Davis in Round 9 to be your starting fantasy tight end? Of course not. I’m just passing along information and telling you to keep an eye on a tight end that so far has been an afterthought on draft day. If my source is correct and Davis is a bigger part of the Bears passing game in 2012, he could be a nice waiver wire pickup at some point during in the season.

Coming Down

Delone Carter, RB Colts - The Colts running back pecking order is one of the more intriguing training camp battles for fantasy owners to keep an eye on. After getting to see Carter play quite a bit at Syracuse I liked his chances to be a successful NFL running back. Well, after one season I was wrong.

I was really disappointed when I saw Carter last year. I obviously wasn’t alone considering he was awarded the starting job and then demoted two weeks later. I went back and watched some of his runs from last year and it wasn’t pretty. As a matter of fact if you take away a 42-yard scamper against the Saints Carter may have been the worst running back in the NFL last year who got at least 100 rushing attempts. He was that bad.

Carter was indecisive, slow and easy to tackle. I don’t know about you but that usually doesn’t sound like a recipe for success when it comes to NFL running backs. Maybe Carter lost his confidence but at times he was really hard to watch last season. If he doesn’t get a lot better in a hurry, Carter will get buried on the depth chart, even the Colts depth chart.

A guy to watch in Indianapolis is rookie Vic Ballard. If Carter and Donald Brown don’t get the job done, Ballard could be one of those players who comes out of nowhere and has fantasy success. Chart Ballard’s progress closely in training camp and preseason. If he looks good and Carter struggles, Ballard could be the second best fantasy option to start the season behind Brown.

I wouldn’t completely close the door on Carter quite yet but based on what I saw from him last season, the door is already halfway shut.

Kenny Britt, WR Titans - You know what concerns me? Guys who continue to have knee problems. I don’t care if you tear your ACL and come back from the injury. An ACL tear is like a bruise these days. I’m not really worried about Wes Welker’s knee. What worries me is when a player has surgery and then these “minor procedures” pop up out of nowhere. Well, Britt has now had three knee procedures in the last 10 months. I’m not a doctor but that doesn’t sound all that encouraging to me.

I’m not saying the Titans selected Kendall Wright in the first round solely because they didn’t think Britt wouldn’t be ready for the season. Even with Britt Tennessee could have used Wright’s speed on offense. However, looking back I do believe there may have been some concern about Britt’s slow recovery and I believe there’s concern about Britt overall going forward within the Titans organization.

People keep comparing Britt to Marques Colston, another receiver who’s dealt with knee issues. That’s a completely ridicolous comparison. Britt is a younger receiver whose game is predicated on speed right now. If his knees are already making him lose some speed and quickness, that’s a major concern. I’m going to personally guarantee you Britt doesn’t run routes like Colston does at this point in his career.

Fantasy owners are still living off of a lot of potential when it comes to Britt. He’s had a few big games but Britt has also battled injuries so far in his career. Once you start having three knee surgeries in 10 months, some of that potential begins to go away. I’ll take a pass on Britt this year. I’ve liked Nate Washington all summer and in my opinion he and Wright are the safer fantasy options right now.

Also, see “Mark Ingram” for players with knee injuries that concern me.

Chad Whatever, WR Dolphins - Call yourself whatever you want, it doesn’t matter. This guy can’t get open anymore and that’s the bottom line. It’s something I noticed watching Whatever last preseason. Here’s what I wrote in the Fire Sale last August:

I’ve watched all three of New England’s preseason games and I see one alarming trend with Ochocinco: Corners are covering him like a blanket. My argument against Roy Williams rekindling his magic with Mike Martz is he simply can create separation anymore. I’m starting to wonder if we’re seeing the same thing happen to Ochocinco.

I don’t know if it’s that Tom Brady and Ochocinco haven’t gotten in synch yet or what but he looks like a receiver just trying to make the team rather than a former Pro Bowler. Ever since Ochocinco was traded to New England his draft stock has risen to where he’s getting selected around the fourth round area. That’s a bit insane if you ask me.

Now, all isn’t lost for Ochocinco. He does have Brady throwing him the football and that means he doesn’t really need a lot of separation in the first place. However, it’s a little concerning that Ochocinco is having trouble getting open against single coverage in the preseason. Sometimes players get old overnight. Time will tell if that’s the case with Ochocinco.

Well, time told that was the case. Now you tell me why 2012 is going to be any different? Because Whatever got another year older and slower? Oh, I know, it’s because he was open last year and Brady just didn’t throw him the ball. Right, because Brady hates throwing to open receivers and virtually every scouting department in the NFL watched film on Whatever and laughed at his eroding physical skills.

Here’s a call: Whatever doesn’t even last the season in South Beach. He’ll get cut. He can fool all those sheep that follow him on Twitter by saying he’s going to have a monster season but he’s not fooling me. Call him whatever you want but he’s done. His career is over. You would be better off having Brian Hartline or Charles Clay on your fantasy squad instead of this joker.

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